Housing Demand strong

“From a strictly demographic perspective, that would place us around the seventh inning of the secular bull market in Canadian housing, before conditions become unfavourable around the turn of the decade,” wrote Kavcic. “The tide is going to turn.”

He said policy-makers should be concerned about full-time employment compared with the over-65 population. “It’s holding up OK for now. But it’s going to roll over.”

Doug Norris, chief demographer with Environics Analytics, agrees the echo boomers have helped prop up the housing market, but says immigration is likely as much a part of the story.

“If the numbers continue, we will have the upward pull because people are coming into the country at ages in which they form households and families,” Norris said.

“I think you’ve got another five years of the echo boom.”

He said immigration

“I THINK YOU’VE GOT ANOTHER FIVE YEARS OF THE ECHO BOOM.” DOUG NORRIS

should be considered for its impact on housing and the economy separately from the echo boom. He said the immigration impact is “going to continue long after the echo boom is gone.”

Phil Soper, chief executive of Royal LePage Real Estate Services, said his company did a survey on real estate attitudes last year and found some echo boomers have bought into the dream of owning a detached home in a suburban neighbourhood.

“It was a surprise to us because we expected more of propensity to choose urban living,” Soper said, adding that those attitudes should continue to drive prices of single-family homes.

James Mckellar, director of the program in real estate and infrastructure at York University, said for the past decade people have predicted a bursting housing bubble, but it hasn’t materialized because there isn’t enough supply to meet demand, and won’t be anytime soon.

“They are not building any more existing neighbourhoods. Condo owners are going to look to existing neighbourhoods; that’s pentup demand that is going to come from condos.”