May calls snap election in U.K.
Why the British prime minister called snap vote
LONDON • It is a romantic and seductive story: a prime minister, out walking in the ruggedly beautiful hills of northern Wales, inspired to a moment of epiphany by the majesty of the scenery.
That was Theresa May’s explanation of how she reached her momentous decision to hold a snap general election, but the truth is more prosaic. The Conservatives can win a 100-seat majority, analysis by Britain’s leading pollster has suggested.
If current polling was replicated at the ballot box, the Tories would win an estimated 375 seats — almost double the 189 that Labour would pick up.
Such a result would vindicate May’s decision to go for an early vote, with the Tory working majority soaring from 17 to 100, according to the projection. Pollster John Curtice of Strathclyde University, who conducted the analysis, said Labour’s collapse under controversial leader Jeremy Corbyn helped explain the results.
Although she took almost the entire cabinet completely by surprise when she told them about the June 8 poll Tuesday, her closest advisers had known for almost a week, and had been preparing for two weeks.
May had started talking to those advisers about an early election almost as soon as she triggered Article 50 — to begin Britain’s exit from the European Union — at the end of last month, and went to Wales already determined to go to the polls.
Insiders say she had been taken aback by the sheer scale of the opposition to her Brexit plans — Corbyn made it clear that Labour would vote against the final deal in 2019 if it did not meet a set of arbitrary tests, while the Liberal Democrats talked of “grinding the government agenda to a standstill” and the Scottish National Party said they had “no intention” of backing the Great Repeal Bill.
May told ITV: “The potential attempts to jeopardize or frustrate the process in the future became clearer.”
The Prime Minister was surrounded by voices urging her to go to the polls, including William Hague, the former Tory leader, who wrote last month about the “troubles ahead” and the need for the PM to increase her majority ahead of the perilous vote in 2019 to get the Brexit deal through Parliament.
Several senior Cabinet ministers shared that view. They pointed out that May had a brief window of opportunity for an early election, as Brexit talks will be stuck in the slow lane until France and Germany have held their own general elections between now and September.
Gradually and, as she said in her statement outside Downing Street, “reluctantly,” May began to come around to their way of thinking.
May only had to think back as far as Gordon Brown for a prime minister who faced a similar chance to increase their majority, only to hesitate and live to regret it.
Whitehall sources also said the “rhetoric” May faced in EU council meetings made her increasingly convinced that she would struggle to secure a good deal for Britain as long as EU leaders knew she might struggle to get her own plans through Parliament.
Amber Rudd, the Home Secretary, said Tuesday: “The point is with the EU they will know we have a small majority. They will watch the polls, see the debates, they read the newspapers.
“It’s important for the EU to realize we have a strong government that is supported by the country so that we can get the best negotiation with them.”
There was, of course, a problem. Ever since she was chosen as Conservative leader — and hence Prime Minister — last July, May has been steadfast and unswerving on the question of an early election.
“I’m not going to be calling a snap election,” she said shortly after taking office. “I’ve been very clear that I think we need that period of time, that stability — to be able to deal with the issues that the country is facing and have that election in 2020.” She explained that “division in Westminster will risk our ability to make a success of Brexit,” and repeated the message whenever she was asked.
During her walks in Snowdonia, Wales, she discussed the dilemma with her husband Philip, and between them they came to the conclusion that an election was not only in the country’s interests, but overrode any sniping May might have to endure about a U-turn.
Writing in today’s Daily Telegraph, May insists: “It is not a decision that I have reached lightly.”
She adds: “The choice (between the parties) is clear-cut, but the decision to call this election was anything but.”