POLITICAL CROSSROAD
Brad Wall is dealing with a difficult present as questions linger about his future, D.C. Fraser writes.
Premier Brad Wall says this spring session, wrapped up this week, has been the most difficult one of his political career.
“There’s no question about it.” The premier is facing unprecedented levels of criticism over the recent budget and it continues to raise questions over how many more Wall will want to oversee.
Much of Wall’s current trouble is based on falling resource prices.
The budget presents a three-year plan to get the province out of its current $1.3-billion deficit and back to balanced books.
At the height of Wall’s tenure, non-renewable resources made close to 40 per cent of the province’s budgeted, own-source revenue. That gave him the rare political opportunity of being able to significantly reduce taxes and, at the same time, spend at record levels. He did both and saw his popularity soar for the better part of a decade.
Government spending doubled from the last NDP government to now — from $7 billion to $14 billion. And at one point, Wall’s government budgeted to bring in 48 per cent of its ownsource revenue from taxes.
This fiscal year, the province is pegging those resources to make up just 13 per cent of its revenue, putting Wall in a position of having to reduce spending and raise taxes. And nearly 70 per cent of Saskatchewan’s own-source revenue is budgeted to be generated by taxes.
Still, he remains a historically popular premier and his 2016 election win arguably changed the province’s political DNA: a rightwing government remaining so dominant for so long in Saskatchewan is unprecedented.
But the almost weekly budget-related protests happening around the province are a continuous reminder that much has changed since the Sask. Party was able to handily win a third term one year ago.
Third-term governments in Saskatchewan have a history of running into trouble and this one has been no exception.
There is an ongoing RCMP investigation into a series of Global Transportation Hub (GTH) land deals that saw two Sask. Party supporters profit.
Union and labour groups are reinvigorated by the province’s plan to reduce public-sector wages by 3.5 per cent. About 600 public sector workers lost their jobs as a result of the budget.
Long-standing paranoia of the Sask. Party’s privatization agenda is, in part, being borne out by the passing of a law allowing the sale of up to 49 per cent of Crown corporations, as well as Wall briefly musing about selling Sask Tel.
The closure of STC, the public transportation company, hit a chord with many; particularly those in rural areas and the elderly who rely on the service.
Teachers and parents protested sweeping changes to education governance and less funding, resulting in layoffs at schools.
Cities and towns came out in force when Wall’s government redirected money historically earmarked for municipalities to provincial coffers.
Employment numbers have, in many ways, stagnated and nonrenewable resource prices are staying stubbornly low.
Northerners continue to raise concern over a lack of mental health supports and decried the province’s decision to defund NORTEP, a successful post-secondary institution.
An ongoing redesign of income assistance for the province’s vulnerable continues to worry advocates and the province’s decision to significantly reduce funding for funerals for people with low or no income did no favours on that front.
Tax cuts for corporations were criticized as a handout to the province’s most wealthy and failed to get even Sask. Party-friendly groups — like the Canadian Federation of Independent Business — on side with the budget.
Amid provincewide protests, the province decided to walk-back its decision to significantly reduce library funding.
All of the cuts are a change of tune from a year ago, when the Sask. Party government made it known there were record levels of spending taking place.
Sask. Party spending is highlighted by a few megaprojects, particularly the $1.5-billion Sask Power carbon capture and storage project, as well as the $1.9-billion Regina Bypass project.
Last year, the government was sending out door-to-door flyers about its spending, which also included $3.5 billion worth of infrastructure projects and close to $140 million in new schools.
Critique of Wall’s government has become personal, with the Opposition NDP — bolstered by a byelection win this spring — regularly raising issues about Wall’s use of a private email service, his involvement in the GTH scandal and the investments the premier has in oil companies he is trying to move to the province and who donate to the Sask. Party.
When Wall was first elected, he made it known he was making great strides in paying off the province’s debt.
Debt levels dropped from $10.5 billion in 2008 to $7.9 billion in 2009, Wall’s early days as premier. Doing so helped him shake the legacy left by Saskatchewan’s last conservative premier, Grant Devine, who left the province mired in debt.
Now, six of the premier’s 10 budgets have been deficits and there is a plan in place to increase Saskatchewan’s overall debt by about 10 per cent each year until it hits record levels in 2021, when it is expected to hit $22.8 billion.
Interim NDP leader Trent Wotherspoon says the recent session has been “a historic and damaging betrayal by the Sask. Party” and Wall’s government has put forward a “short-sighted” budget full of “cold-hearted” cuts.
Sticking true to a long-standing political practice in the province, Wall made regular efforts to deflect negativity away from him and toward the federal government in recent months.
Most of that focused on the federal government’s plan to impose a carbon pricing scheme on the province by 2019. Wall is steadfastly refusing to sign on to any deal and is pledging he will take the feds to court if need be. The premier has contended putting a price on carbon would have a negative effect on Saskatchewan’s carbon intensive economy.
How that plays out is unknown, but if Wall is successful in his fight against a carbon tax it will be significant for his legacy, which has become a focus within political circles since last summer.
Rumours of Wall leaving provincial politics continue to be quietly spoken. Some started emerging in 2015, when one of his longtime political allies, Terri Harris, left his office for a private-sector job. At least some political staffers at that time were under the impression she was the first of many exits from Wall’s office, but that has largely not been the case.
Rumours continued when the leadership for the federal Conservative Party of Canada became available. Wall was courted publicly for the job, but continually refuted any notion of him leaving Saskatchewan, saying he is happy in the job he has now and the only fixed timeline he is focused on is the 2020 provincial election.
Still, there are rumours he could leave the job of premier within months.
A counter to those rumours is the long-standing belief that Wall wants to cement a legacy of being the premier who redeemed the conservative brand in Saskatchewan and, perhaps, continue to fortify the idea his Sask. Party has enough staying power to outlast the NDP as the province’s “natural governing party.
Wall sticking around until at least the 2020 election would also give him an opportunity to redeem himself as a sound fiscal manager of the province’s fortunes.
He says he doesn’t know what factors will play into him leading the Sask. Party into that election, but that, “It’s true we need to be accountable for the fiscal impact we’re at now, but we should also be held accountable or take responsibility for the fact we’ve made some key investments that have really helped change Saskatchewan for the long-term.”