Sask. Party vote presents intriguing scenarios

Let us not be silly enough to attempt to definitely pick a winner in Saturday’s Saskatchewan Party leadership race.

There is simply not enough quality polling information to make that determination.

However, a consensus view has emerged that this is an incredibly tight race — perhaps anyone’s race for the top three or possibly four contenders.

So let us take a look at how this presumably tight race could break down and what votes each candidates would need.

In order to do so, we need to make a few completely hypothetical assumptions.

The first involves how many votes will be cast.

According to Sask. Party executive director Patrick Bundrock, who has already been counting the number of mail-in ballots, the party now expects about the same ballot take-up rate as the federal Conservatives and Alberta’s United Conservative Party — about 55 per cent. Transposed on the Sask. Party’s announced membership of 27,125 people, that would be 14,900. Let’s call it an even 15,000 ballots for ease of calculation. That would mean the magic number to win would be about 7,500.

Accepting that this a remarkably close race, let’s use the completely unscientific straw poll done by the Manning Centre that asked its followers (largely conservative) to vote for fun. The initial results (and again, this was done strictly for amusement; results may be still pouring in) showed a first ballot with Alanna Koch and Ken Cheveldayoff tied at 27 per cent (4,050 votes each, based on the hypothetical 15,000 votes), Scott Moe at 23 per cent (3,450 votes) Gord Wyant at 20 per cent (3,000 votes) and Tina BeaudryMellor at 10 per cent (1,500 votes).

Again, this is just a hypothetical outcome, but a fascinating one that helps us understand the path to victory for candidates.

In the reality of Saturday’s race, Rob Clarke’s votes will be counted even though he dropped out on Dec. 13. That still leaves BeaudryMellor at the bottom of the five remaining declared candidates. And should she get 10 per cent of the vote as suggested in the Manning Centre straw poll, her 1,500 votes would have considerable influence on the final outcome.

The Manning Centre results would play out rather well for Wyant, under the assumption that he would pick up the lion’s share of Beaudry-Mellor’s votes because of similar policies. Wyant might be able to garner the extra 450 votes he would need to surpass Scott Moe and drop him to the bottom of the second ballot.

Things to consider: Will Beaudry-Mellor garner enough votes to have that much influence? Should we necessarily assume the bulk of Beaudry-Mellor’s votes will go to Wyant or any one specific candidate, or might they be more evenly dispersed? Will Wyant get enough support on the first ballot to overtake Moe or the other members of the supposed top three?

If Wyant does bump Moe off the ballot, it’s possible Wyant would garner a lot of Moe’s support on the last and/or second last ballot because of similar policies and, thus, become a serious threat to become premier. However, in the arguably more likely scenario of Wyant slipping off the ballot before Moe, would support Moe has accumulated from Wyant or Beaudry-Mellor be enough to be on the last ballot against either Koch or Cheveldayoff ? Could Moe garner enough support from whomever is not on the last ballot to win it all?

Or is it now inevitable that the last Sask. Party ballot will be between Koch and Cheveldayoff, as both candidates and the Manning Centre straw poll have hinted?

It’s rather interesting that the Manning Centre straw poll also showed Koch and Cheveldayoff even (17 per cent) on second-ballot support. If they both are on that last ballot, who can pull the support from other candidates? Are they that close or will one have a more sizable lead upon which to build? And if the two aren’t on the last ballot, to whom will their supporters go?

It will make for a long, fascinating day for political watchers.