Run-off likely to be below normal this spring

It’s premature to predict a drought in Saskatchewan, but unless there’s a big dump of wet snow or heavy rain in the spring, the Water Security Agency is forecasting spring run-off will be below normal.

“What we’re looking at for the majority of the province is below normal to well below normal spring run-off,” said Patrick Boyle, WSA spokesperson.

The preliminary spring forecast comes on the heels of a summer that saw extremely low rainfall across a large portion of southern Saskatchewan, and record dry conditions in some locations.

The dry conditions continued in the fall, and as a result, the soil was dry at freeze-up. Additionally, winter precipitation has been below normal to date.

Boyle noted the run-off potential could change, given there are another eight to 10 weeks of winter remaining.

“If we look in Alberta, they’re expecting a major snow event in Calgary and area, so those things could happen here quite easily,” Boyle said.

However, with the dry conditions, it would take well above-average precipitation in February, March and April to produce an above-average spring run-off within southern areas of the province.

Prior to the next forecast in March, the WSA will measure the snow’s water content.

“Heavy wet snow with high water content can increase the forecast for us,” Boyle said. “That could happen, but looking at the averages, we’re likely to move forward to below average or well below normal.”

Even before last week’s snowfall, the landscape was pretty brown, Boyle said.

“We do get just under half of our precipitation from winter snowfall in February, March or April — sometimes in May, too. It just depends on the year,” he said.

Late last summer, agricultural supply issues began to emerge, predominately in the southwest.

With below or well-below-normal run-off expected, it’s anticipated that these water supply shortages will intensify and expand across southern Saskatchewan.

This could create some water supply issues for municipalities and irrigators if conditions remain dry in the summer months.

The WSA’s regional office in Swift Current measured salt content to determine water quality.

“We saw some issues with livestock in that area during that, so we’re going to be looking at having that service available to producers, but certainly the southwest is typically drier anyway,” Boyle said.