Despite blows, CANADA has U.S. friends in trade war

TRADE WAR Motions passed, but will likely have little effect

WASHINGTON, D.C. • War can be hell, even a trade war.

The blows aimed at Canada from south of the border have come fast and furious lately, with the U.S. slapping hefty tariffs on exports ranging from steel to newsprint, demanding to rip up NAFTA and even offering nasty words for the prime minister.

Amid the attacks and reprisals, there is some solace for Canada: a substantial chunk of the Washington, D.C., political class that has, in effect, taken this country’s side in various trade skirmishes. As the White House fires salvos at Canada, some lawmakers, even members of President Donald Trump’s Republican party, have acted almost like a wartime fifth column within the Washington beltway.

The question now is whether even they will have any impact on the president’s agenda.

On Wednesday, senators voted 88-11 in favour of a non-binding motion that calls for Congress to have a greater say in the administration’s use of “nationalsecurity” tariffs, like those on steel and aluminum.

“Let’s be clear, this is a rebuke of the president’s abuse of trade authority,” said Republican Sen. Jeff Flake, a vocal Trump critic. “Can you imagine being Canada and being told your steel and aluminum exports to the United States (are) a national security threat?”

Down the hall in the House of Representatives, several members introduced a bill Wednesday that would require the president to get congressional approval for national-security tariffs, while the house’s trade subcommittee announced a hearing next week into the trade war’s toll on agriculture.

Producers are being “significantly hurt” by tariffs on imports they need, and face “severe” effects from retaliatory measures taken by Canada and other nations, said subcommittee chair Dave Reichert.

Congressmen have also introduced bills to end new tariffs on Canadian newsprint, urged a stop to Canadian softwood lumber duties and spoken out generally against the White House’s confrontational trade tactics with friends like Canada.

“Canada does have allies in Washington and Congress,” said Dan Ujczo, a trade lawyer based in Columbus. “Here in Ohio, U.S. Senator Sherrod Brown, who is one of the most ANTI-NAFTA, pro-tariff members of the Senate you will meet … even he’s saying that Canada should be exempted — as well as Mexico and the European Union — from steel and aluminum tariffs.”

After meeting with Foreign Affairs Minister Chrystia Freeland last month, members of the Senate’s Gopdominated foreign relations committee went out of their way to commiserate with Canada, citing the “sadness” of the suddenly tense relationship.

A “maple charm offensive” that has seen virtually every member of the federal cabinet make a total of over 200 visits to the U.S. in the last year has likely helped encourage such viewpoints, said a Canadian official familiar with the trade file.

Meanwhile, outside experts caution that pushback to Trump’s trade agenda on Capitol Hill could turn out to be largely toothless — and fleeting. Attempts to pass legislation giving the Senate actual, tangible power over use of those national-security tariffs, for instance, have twice failed. And the U.S. midterm elections, rather than upend the administration’s trade policy, may usher in more allies for him, on both sides of the aisle.

“Congress is important and there are some people who say nice things and actually do seem to agree with Canada,” said Chris Sands, head of the Center for Canadian Studies at Johns Hopkins University. “What I don’t know is whether they have the guts to make a difference in this debate.”

Indeed, Congress had an opportunity to stop Trump in his tracks recently, and failed to act. The president’s authority to negotiate a new NAFTA deal expired on July 1 and was automatically renewed, but could have been halted with a “resolution of disapproval.” No one in Congress, which has constitutional authority over trade, even proposed such a move, said Sands.

Ujczo suggested many Republican legislators are willing to give Trump a “long leash” to see what he can accomplish with his trade machinations, sensing that voters, especially the Trump base, are onside with him.

“What we have seen is that his electorate is thrilled, is overjoyed by all of these measures that are being taken,” said Monica de Bolle, a senior fellow with Washington’s Peterson Institute for International Economics.

Still, Congress has unquestionably made some gestures of indirect support for Canada, and not just over the national-security tariffs.

A group of 170 House of Representatives members urged last month that the administration settle with Canada over softwood lumber, citing the mounting costs of new homes triggered by countervailing duties on Canadian wood.

Bills have been introduced in both houses to suspend tariffs that were placed on Canadian newsprint, shaking an already struggling U.S. newspaper industry.

There is a “critical mass” within Congress that’s gravely concerned about the president’s actions, says De Bolle.

The possible next chapter, though, may be less hopeful for Canada.

Midterm elections this fall are likely to fill Congress with more Democrats who are traditionally skeptical of free trade, and Trump Republicans who espouse his unorthodox approach.

“I really caution people when they say ‘We’ll just wait out Trump,’ or ‘We’ll wait for a Blue (Democrat) wave,’ ” said Ujczo. “This is the new normal on trade.”