2019 holds plenty of promise for Premier Moe and his Sask. Party

It’s a fool’s game to predict what might happen in politics — let alone whether a politician is likely to have a good or bad year.

But there’s reason to suspect 2019 could be a very good year for Premier Scott Moe and his Saskatchewan Party — largely because of what happened three years ago in the 2016 election.

Of course, there are also a few reasons why 2019 could still go bad for the premier.

For example, the most recent Saskatchewan population number (it increased to 1,165,903 people as of Oct. 1) and job numbers (which increased by 16,300 in December compared with a year earlier) have Moe in an enviable position.

However, job numbers can be fickle in our resource-based economy. And it’s the economy — which government has less control over than many think — that often dictates the mood of the electorate.

Moreover, Moe will continue to be haunted in 2019 by public debt ($19.78 billion, according to the 2018-19 mid-year report) and ongoing spending scandals like the Global Transportation Hub and the Regina bypass. These issues won’t get any easier in 2019.

For a politician like Moe, who spent his first year in office relying on the two-note message of “no carbon tax” and “build more pipelines,” there’s a danger of being perceived as ignoring real issues at home — like service cuts — and spending too much time on national, politically driven issues.

And we saw the annoyance some voters expressed over Moe’s Christmas message; a leader doesn’t really want to do much to irritate the electorate.

That said, a majority of Saskatchewan voters clearly aren’t irritated by Moe. According to a December Angus Reid poll, 57 per cent approve of Moe’s leadership — the second-best ranking in the nation. Moreover, Moe’s December showing is five percentage points better than his initial rating last March, and now exceeds Brad Wall’s rating in his last two Angus Reid polls before retiring as premier.

That Moe starts this year with a higher approval rating than the guy who was the most popular premier in Canada bodes well for his 2019. And so do a lot of other things.

Sure, he risks annoying voters with his two-message track — especially if anything else goes south for his government in 2019. But notwithstanding Saskatchewan’s economic struggles, there’s a good chance he’ll deliver a balanced 2019-20 budget in March, as promised.

That would put him in good

stead heading into an election he has set for Oct. 26, 2020.

Another reason 2019 should be a good year for the Sask. Party leader is pretty much the same reason that most years have been good ones for the party since taking power in 2007. Few political leaders in this country enjoy the solid, wide base Moe has with his party’s overwhelming support coming from every corner of rural Saskatchewan.

Consider the 2016 rural Saskatchewan Party compared with the NDP:

Southeast Saskatchewan: Eight seats for the Sask. Party with a 25,725-vote advantage over the NDP (38,230 to 12,505).

Southwest: Five seats for the Sask. Party with a 20,593-vote advantage (24,226 to 3,633).

West-central: Five seats for the Sask. Party with a 27,695-vote advantage (35,582 to 7,877).

Northeast: Six seats for the Sask. Party with a 17,305-vote advantage (29,189 to 11,884).

Northwest: Five seats for the Sask. Party with a 17,230-vote advantage (23,589 to 6,368).

So overwhelming are these numbers that they virtually guarantee Moe’s Sask. Party will recapture all 29 rural seats, meaning it would need just three more seats to form another majority government. Maybe Moe’s forces won’t win back all 19 urban seats it now holds, but surely it will win enough of them to secure a fourth majority government. That should make 2019 a lot easier.

However, it’s the fact that Moe isn’t facing an election this year and that Liberal Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is that could be the best thing about his 2019.

The federal campaign will allow Moe ample opportunity to keep hammering home his anti-carbon tax/pro-pipeline messages that are especially popular with his rural base.

At the very least, 2019 should be a lot of fun for Moe.