WHAT HAPPENS NEXT IN BREXIT DEBATE: THE OPTIONS.

Michael Higgins examines the key issues at play in this vital week in the U.K.-EU breakup

DID HARDLINE BREXITEERS JUST BLINK?

A large number of Conservative lawmakers under the banner of something called the European Research Group (ERG) are among the hardliners who have consistently voted against British Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit deal. Fellow Tories have even accused them of “treachery” for their support of a “hard” Brexit — where all ties with Europe are severed as opposed to a “soft” Brexit where some trade links, or even a customs union, are kept open. Now the chairman of the group, Jacob Rees-mogg, is suggesting he is willing to back May’s deal. “The choice seems to be Mrs May’s deal or no Brexit,” he tweeted. Others have also indicated they are willing to back May. Daniel Kawczynski, a member of the ERG, has also concluded that Brexiteers must back the deal to avoid a softer form of Brexit being imposed by parliament. “We Brexiteers are playing with fire, and we could get very, very burnt if this deal doesn’t get through,” he told The Daily Telegraph.

WILL MAY’S DEAL PASS PARLIAMENT?

It seems inconceivable that a deal that has twice been rejected by wide margins should pass a third time. But May’s deal might when it is put to parliament in the coming days. Her deal could pass if she gains enough support from former Tory rebels who now feel that if they don’t pass her Withdrawal Agreement, then leaving Europe at all might be impossible. She is also likely to gather support from some opposition members, especially from lawmakers in constituencies that voted heavily to quit the EU. A deal that should be stonecold dead is, astonishingly, still on life support.

THE BIG STUMBLING BLOCK

But May’s deal is likely to need the support of her parliamentary partners, the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP). Their 10 votes will be crucial and the party has consistently failed to back May. On Tuesday, Sammy Wilson, the party’s Brexit spokesman, said May’s deal would essentially lock them in a “prison” with the EU holding the key. It is difficult to see them backing May.

IS PARLIAMENT NOW IN CHARGE?

On Monday, lawmakers tried to seize control of the Brexit process by agreeing to hold a series of votes on alternative arrangements. Those other arrangements could include a softer Brexit, a different form of customs union with the EU, a second referendum, or no Brexit at all. Lawmakers will hold a series of “indicative votes” to see whether any of the other arrangements can command a majority in parliament. The feeling is that if a majority agree on a certain proposal then the prime minister would be under pressure to follow that course. But May has said that any vote is not binding on the government, that her deal is the only one before parliament, and thus she is likely to ignore any “indicative vote.”

WILL MAY QUIT?

There is intense speculation that Tories are applying pressure for May to quit. The rumour is that May could announce her departure date in the hope of winning over skeptical Brexiteers who would prefer another prime minister — and a tougher negotiator — to lead the next phrase of Brexit talks. Brexit is only the beginning of the breakup with the EU and crucial trade talks lie ahead. Former foreign minister Boris Johnson has indicated that he could back the deal if May agreed to go. On Wednesday night, May will address the 1922 Committee — her Tory backbenchers. The leader of that group, Graham Brady, is believed to have told May that the backbenchers want her to go.