Saskatoon StarPhoenix

Kenney, defeated by his party, may try a comeback

UCP leader's biggest error was attacking people on fringe

- DON BRAID Braid is a columnist for the Calgary Herald.

There was only one way to upstage the hockey Battle of Alberta. Premier Jason Kenney found it, to his sorrow, by saying he will eventually step off the stage.

Despite prediction­s of a solid victory, only 51.4 per cent of more than 34,000 UCP members who voted in the leadership review said they approved of him.

Kenney had previously said that “50 per cent plus one” is the majority in a democracy, implying that was enough for him to continue.

To many observers he seemed to be quitting cold. But late Wednesday, it was confirmed that he intends to stay on as leader and premier until the next leader is chosen.

It's even possible that he could run for the job again. That idea did not get a denial from his staff Wednesday night.

In 2006, Ralph Klein stayed on for months after scoring 55 per cent approval. But those were different times. Despite problems with the party, Klein remained popular with the public.

Kenney's effort to stay on is sure to draw bitter opposition from his opponents in caucus and beyond.

Technicall­y, Kenney has a case. He wasn't actually defeated. He can argue that his resignatio­n as party leader is voluntary and, like Klein, he gets to decide the timing.

Kenney announced his intention to resign in a dramatic way, first saying he had a majority but suddenly adding: “It is clearly not adequate support to carry on as leader ... I truly believe we need to move forward together, we need to put the past behind us.”

Whoever happens next, this remains a dangerous moment for the UCP.

The small gathering of his strongest loyalists, an invited group that didn't include many UCP ministers and MLAS, was shocked both by the result and the resignatio­n promise.

Kenney asked the UCP board to set a date for a new leadership election.

A person who gets the caretaker job would have the critical task of running the party and government while restoring an image of sensible competence and unity.

But now, it appears Kenney will prevent that from happening, or try to.

There will be a leadership race. Kenney said it's necessary. What he did not say is whether or not he'll be a candidate. Nothing in the UCP rules would prevent him from resigning, and then running.

There will be a struggle over whether the UCP edges more to the centre, or veers sharply to the right. Many of the MLAS who opposed Kenney prefer the latter.

New MLA Brian Jean will run. Danielle Smith will likely join in, too. They're well-known voices from the party's past, but many members will want to move beyond the old merger struggles.

Whoever happens next, this remains a dangerous moment for the UCP.

The Progressiv­e Conservati­ves never regained winning form after Alison Redford quit in 2014, effective immediatel­y.

Dave Hancock became the caretaker and Jim Prentice the premier. But the NDP won the 2015 election, partly because of the long years of PC division.

Kenney's biggest mistake in the strange leadership campaign, I think, was to preach party unity even as he attacked people on the fringe as lunatics and radicals.

He wasn't talking about moderate UCP members who might disagree with him, but a lot of those people thought he was. That might have been the difference between 51.4 per cent and a survivable number.

And so, on Wednesday Kenney suffered a setback he considered serious enough to resign the party leadership.

But he intends to govern for many more months – and maybe try a comeback.

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