Substantial change could be coming for Saskatoon council

This year's Saskatoon city council election is starting to resemble the transformational one in 2016, rather than the status quo vote in 2020.

In 2016, Tiffany Paulsen retired from politics and Eric Olauson got elected as an MLA, which left wards 9 and 8 vacant, respectively. A third councillor, Charlie Clark, vacated Ward 6 to run for mayor. That meant a minimum of three new faces on council.

This year, two councillors, Sarina Gersher and David Kirton, have announced they will not seek another term, which leaves wards 8 and 3 vacant, respectively. A third councillor, Cynthia Block, is considering running for mayor as Clark steps aside, which would leave Ward 6 open.

Eight years ago, Clark defeated the city's longest-serving mayor Don Atchison and Hilary Gough beat longtime councillor Pat Lorje in a rare upset of an incumbent. But the election also marked the return of council veteran Bev Dubois in Ward 9; she previously represented Ward 10.

For a city council that generally yields drips of change, that was a geyser: Three brand new councillors and a new mayor. In 2020, all 10 incumbents who ran were re-elected and Kirton was the only new face after winning a vacant ward.

In 2009, all 10 councillors and the mayor ran and got back in.

You would have to dial back to 2003, the year Atchison was first elected mayor, to find greater change, with five new councillors and a new mayor.

In that watershed election, which also featured a rejection by voters of plans for a downtown casino, two councillors who may run again this year were elected for the first time: Dubois and Gord Wyant.

This time, though, Wyant is considering a run for mayor and may well face Atchison. Chronic city hall critic Cary Tarasoff also says he's running for mayor again — revealing his plans in a social media post on April Fools' Day — after finishing a distant fourth in 2020.

But if Tarasoff can build on the 4.5 per cent of the vote he got four years ago, he will present an obstacle for anyone running a campaign urging change at city hall.

As has been noted before, though, you don't need much turnover on a council that makes many decisions with 6-5 votes to result in change. Ann Iwanchuk's decision to step aside in 2020 made a considerable difference.

Iwanchuk, an ardent opponent of changes to waste management, had consistently voted against moving to a utility model and adding an organics program. But Kirton backed both, and his vote was key in a 6-5 decision. Kirton also appeared to vote far more often with Clark and his left-leaning allies on council than Iwanchuk did.

Gersher could be considered one of those allies and her absence could be significant as she departs after eight years on council. Gersher's predecessor was Olauson, who left to run for the Saskatchewan Party, but lasted just one controversial term as an MLA.

This history suggests voters in Ward 8, like Ward 3, are not locked into a particular voting pattern based on ideology.

Two other veteran councillors could be vulnerable if they run again. Coun. Darren Hill barely won his Ward 1 race in 2020 with a margin of 56 votes over Kevin Boychuk, who later ran for the People's Party of Canada in the 2021 federal election.

It has since been revealed that Hill was committed against his will to a mental health care facility in early 2021. Hill is suing over the incident, but it could well influence voters.

So could Coun. Randy Donauer's inclusion in a class-action lawsuit over allegations of abuse at a Saskatoon Christian school and its affiliated church, which are located in the Ward 5 that he represents.

That seems likely to affect his support, even though a verdict has not yet been rendered and no criminal charges have been laid despite formal complaints to police.

Regardless of what you think about Hill or Donauer, they stood out as two of the most aggressive voices seeking spending cuts in this year's budget and its predecessors.

Their potential absence from council could also signal substantial change.

You would have to dial back to 2003, the year Atchison was first elected mayor, to find greater change, with five new councillors and a new mayor.