The Great Divides

The long, horrible – and at times hysterical – 2016 United States presidential election is finally coming down to its inevitable dénouement and, in 22 days, Americans will have elected either a highly unpopular woman or a slavering lunatic to the “highest elected office in the free world.” That should be the end of it, as the people will have spoken, but this election has been like no other in terms of its divisiveness, nastiness, and jaw-dropping personal attacks and there is every indication that neither side will go down without a fight if the voters turn against them.

A key factor in the success of any democratic form of government is its ability to maintain the trust of the electorate. In most western democracies, the losing sides of an elections gracefully accept the will of the people’ and concede their defeat. In multi-party elections, most often a government is formed from a coalition of those elected through compromise and negotiations. In both cases, the assumption is that the public will accept the results.

Recently, unhinged Republican Party nominee Donald “the Donald’ Trump has begun to deliberately undermine this confidence by insisting that a vast conspiracy is afoot to steal the election from him. It’s the same conspiracy that sabotaged his microphone during the first candidates’ debate, making him sound unprepared, ignorant, crude, and petulant. It is also the same conspiracy that tricked him into behaving like a complete boor for most of his life and having the nerve to believe the recorded evidence as opposed to his sacred Word. He has also dispatched hordes of his ‘deplorables’ to ‘be vigilant’ on Election Day, as nothing ensures democracy like well-armed man-boys intimidating people at the voting booth.

With the support of virtually every white nationalist hate group, militia, and evangelical fanatic, Trump has fanned the insecurities of the dying middle class and the anger of the white working poor, and presented himself as some sort of white messiah who alone can solve the nation’s ills. Rather than combating the ignorance of the masses, he has embraced it and given it room to grow and a place to coalesce.

Although the Donald has managed, in spite of himself, to corral the manufactured hatred of Hillary Clinton and keep the race close. The fact is that there has rarely been a more qualified candidate. Trump, on the other hand, has proven beyond all doubt – and several times over – that it would be difficult to imagine a person who has less knowledge, experience, common sense, common decency, loyalty, or self-awareness. As his fortunes plummet, he cannot fathom that he is his own worst enemy. His campaign has been sabotaged, to be sure, but not by anything the Hillary camp has done. It has been undermined by the leader’s own unbelievable crassness, determined ignorance, and his utter contempt for the people he’s hustling. He is a master con man who is demonstrating before our eyes the famous ‘Peter Principle,’ which describes how people generally rise to a level just above their competence.

Although it’s beginning to look like Trump’s campaign will go down in flames, the impact it will have on the American political conversation will likely be felt for many years to come. Trump is the inevitable product of the Republican Party’s half-century strategy of pandering to the fears of conservative Middle America, allied with repressively fundamentalist Christian organizations, and much of the billionaire class. It has sold its soul to the NRA and dedicated itself solely to partisan politics and an unregulated ‘free’ market. It has nursed the hatred and fear that runs through American society and vigorously promoted the idea that if it weren’t for Democrats, minorities, women, gay people, hippies, tree huggers, and Obama, the US could regain the divinely granted perfection the national myth describes.

Things are not much better on the Democrat side, given that their own candidate is one of the most unpopular (and, ironically respected) people in the country. So disliked is she, that she almost had the nomination snatched away from her once again, this time by an aging, angry socialist who came from nowhere to challenge the heir-apparent. While many of his – mostly young - supporters will dejectedly hold their noses and support her out of fear of an Orange deluge, they will do so unwillingly and with little enthusiasm. Hillary is seen as the ‘lesser of two evils, but evil just the same.’

With this in mind, it is fairly clear that regardless of who wins the upcoming vote count – and the potential drama in the Electoral College – the next American president will be sworn in with a majority of the population unhappy with the result. What happens next remains to be seen.

If current trends hold, it is extremely likely that Donald Trump will be soundly defeated come November 8. If he is, then the Republican Party will be faced with an existential crisis. There will be those who believe that Trump will have been robbed, that the system is irrevocably broken, and, as many have suggested, a revolution of sorts might be necessary to keep the awful Hillary from forever corrupting the Supreme Court. This gang will also be bitterly angry at the Republican Party itself for the failure of many of its most prominent figures to provide the Donald the kind of support he needs, with many coming out vigorously against him. Feeling betrayed and abandoned on all fronts, some of Trump’s most ardent supporters will opt to put their well-known inclination to violence into action with ‘patriotic’ acts of violence and intimidation. Believing that they represent the ‘true will of the people,’ these people are not very likely to fade away.

A similar conundrum faces the defeated followers of the Bernie Uprising, who hate Hillary almost as much as Republicans do – for entirely different reasons. Bernie Sanders represents the left-wing of the Democratic movement and his message succeeded in motivating a number of people who generally have rejected the policies and attitudes of both major parties. While many will probably hold their noses and vote for Clinton, if they vote at all, others will instead support a hopeless third party candidate. The question remains, however, as to what they’ll do afterwards. Will they fall back into the stupor that has characterized the left in recent decades, or will they continue to fight for an entirely new approach? Having been enthused by the Bernie phenomenon, it remains to be seen whether that enthusiasm for change can survive in meaningful form until the next election.

In summary, regardless of who wins next month, the next president will face a brand new political landscape. The Republican Party is facing an all-out civil war, regardless of who wins. The Democrats face a less challenging future, but have nevertheless been given warning that they will have to adapt rapidly to hold on to their reluctant left wing. The two-party system that so characterizes the American republic is perhaps facing its greatest threat. This could be a very good thing, but it won’t be a pleasant one.