The Head versus the Heart: In campaign’s second week, O’toole is voters’ intellectual choice, shares ‘gut’ preference with Singh

In an election that may be decided by small segments of moveable voters migrating between parties, leadership matters.

A new study from the nonprofit Angus Reid Institute finds that, while the Liberals continue to hang on to a small advantage in vote intent, party chief Justin Trudeau is neither the most attractive leader when voters consider their choice with their head, nor with their heart.

When asked who they would be most amenable to if they rely on their gut in this campaign, 23 per cent of Canadians choose Trudeau, compared to the onein-three (33 per cent) who pick NDP leader Jagmeet Singh, or the three-in-10 (31 per cent) who opt for the CPC’S Erin O’toole.

Further, 60 per cent of Liberal supporters say Trudeau is the most attractive leader for them if they rely on their gut, while nearly one-third of this same base opt for Singh.

By contrast, among their own respective voters, O’toole (86 per cent) and Singh (88 per cent) both generate far higher levels of support on this question.

And what if potential voters relied on their reasoning and intellect? In this case, O’toole garners the highest preference, chosen by 36 per cent of Canadians. Trudeau (29 per cent) and Singh (25 per cent) both receive significant support on this measure as well.

This is not unfamiliar territory for Trudeau. In 2019, he trailed Conservative opponent Andrew Scheer as the choice for both voters’ hearts and minds but still ended up with a minority government despite narrowly losing the popular vote.

More Key Findings:

- Nearly all (95 per cent) of those who say O’toole is the choice of their heart also say he is their choice using reasoning and intellect. That’s only true for three-in-five (59 per cent) of those who choose Singh.

- Trudeau is not the top emotional choice in any region in the country and only the top intellectual choice in Quebec and Atlantic Canada.

The full poll can be viewed online at https://angusreid.org/ head-heart-federal-election/