The Southwest Booster

Expectatio­n versus reality: Canadians divided about preferred election result, largely expect Liberal minority

- ANGUS REID INSTITUTE

Canadians are bearing witness to the roller coaster ride that has been the first weeks of the 44th federal election. A comfortabl­e advantage for the incumbent Liberals has vanished, while the Conservati­ve party picked up support driven by its leader’s surging momentum.

Regardless of how they vote, however, Canadians – at least at this stage in the campaign – say they largely expect an election outcome that mirrors the way government looked when the writs were dropped Aug. 15.

New data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute finds half of Canadians (49 per cent) saying they anticipate another Liberal minority government. Another one-in-nine (12 per cent) say that they expect the Liberals to turn it around and win a majority. Just one-in-three (34 per cent) expect a Conservati­ve government in any form.

That’s not necessaril­y what Canadians want, however.

Asked what form of government they would prefer if they could choose, the largest group – 42 per cent – would like to see the CPC take over from the Liberals, whether in majority (32 per cent) or minority (10 per cent) compositio­n. Three-in-10 (31 per cent) would like the Liberal Party to govern again, divided evenly between hoping for a majority or minority, while slightly fewer (27 per cent) want Jagmeet Singh as prime minister, and the NDP as the government.

More Key Findings:

- Just 52 per cent of current Liberal voters say they would like to see an LPC majority. Far more Conservati­ve (81 per cent) and NDP (63 per cent) voters would like to see this from the party they plan to support.

A majority of residents in Alberta and Saskatchew­an would like to see a Conservati­ve majority. Nowhere else do a majority of voters agree about which party they would like to see govern.

More than four-in-five Liberal voters (84 per cent) expect their party to win. Two-thirds of CPC voters (64 per cent) say they believe their party will win, while just 14 per cent of NDP voters say this of the NDP.

The full poll can be viewed online at https://angusreid.org/federal-election-expectatio­n-reality/

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