Rooted in local farm and ranch living Carbon pricing troubles drive a widening gap between CPC and lagging Liberals in vote

The latest data to be released from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute finds the Conservative Party of Canada leading the governing Liberal Party by 14 points nationally.

The CPC lead in all regions of the country outside of Quebec, where three-in-10 residents would support the Bloc Québécois (30%) or the Liberal Party (29%) and 23 per cent would vote for Pierre Poilievre’s party.

The Liberals have one remaining bastion of support at this point, women over the age of 54. Within this group, two-in-five (41%) would support Justin Trudeau’s party, while 28 per cent prefer the opposition CPC. Young women show an overwhelming preference for the NDP, while all other age and gender combinations lean toward the CPC at this point.

Two-in-five would-be voters say the carbon tax will be a major factor for them in deciding which party to support in the next federal election, with some voters presumably hoping to keep the tax in place to curb emissions, and others hoping to elect a Conservative government to “axe the tax”.

The carbon tax factor

The issue of the month is undoubtedly the carbon tax.

Asked how much this issue will influence their vote in the next federal election, two-in-five Canadians say it will be a major factor. This proportion jumps to three-in-five among past Conservative voters. The Trudeau government, once lauded for its savvy communications style is facing resistance to one of its signature policies, in large part due to its evident failure to adequately communicate how the policy works.

The latest data from Angus Reid, digging into not only what Canadians think of carbon pricing, but why, reveals a profound lack of awareness, and misconceptions about how much tax they believe they pay, whether they receive a rebate and the extent to which they are ahead or behind financially once that rebate is paid. This, combined with the ongoing cost-of-living crisis and skepticism over whether carbon pricing is actually doing much to combat climate change are driving a plurality of Canadians (42%) to call for the tax to be abolished.

Others are less certain that the tax needs to be permanently done away with, but 17 per cent would lower it temporarily for the next three years, while one-quarter would hold off on any subsequent increases, maintaining current taxation levels. The smallest group – 15 per cent overall – say they would continue as planned, with the scheduled price increase next April.

Much of this comes as a new financial environment has altered Canadians’ priorities. The proportion of those saying climate change is among their top issues facing Canada has dropped from 40 per cent in 2019, to 34 per cent in 2021, to 22 per cent in this latest study.

Broadly, this has contributed to an 11point drop in support for carbon pricing in Canada compared to 2021 levels.

Some of this consternation may be overcome with an improvement in communication and delivery on the part of the federal government. In the areas where the federal carbon tax is operating, the government states that 90 per cent of households will receive a quarterly rebate. Those saying they are relatively certain they received one, however, is much lower in Alberta (66%) and Ontario (58%). Among those who have received a household rebate, at least 51 per cent in each eligible region of the country say they feel they pay more for the carbon tax than they receive back in benefits.

More Key Findings:

•Among those who say they receive more or about the same amount in a rebate compared to what they spend, fourin-five (79%) support the carbon tax. Among those who say they spend more than they get back, four-in-five (82%) oppose it.

•Half of Canadians (48%) support the Liberal government’s exemption of home heating oil from the carbon tax, while one-in-three (34%) oppose it. Two-thirds (65%) would further exempt all home heating fuels.

•While they’re critical of the carbon tax, 54 per cent of Canadians say Canada should continue to commit to reaching its 2030 emission reduction targets.