Going Green?

Polls are tricky animals.

Journalists covering elections like them, because it’s a way of keeping score, but undecided voters make up a large chunk of the electorate and Canadians have proven that they’re willing to change their minds.

Not to mention there are five, perhaps six, parties that might end up with seats in Parliament after the election on Oct. 21, which complicates matters even more.

Most polls had the Liberals and Conservatives very close until Justin Trudeau’s blackface revelations last week. Several released this week suggest the Conservatives now have a small lead. All suggest a minority government this time.

Green Party Leader Elizabeth May, who knows her party won’t win but expects to take more seats than the two it now holds, is hoping for just that result.

May, chatting with the Chronicle Herald’s editorial board on Tuesday, fondly recalled the minority government of Lester Pearson (1963 to 1968) that brought in universal health care, the Canada Pension Plan and the Maple Leaf flag.

If the electoral cards fall in the Greens’ favour, May’s party could end up with what she called “the balance of responsibility.”

With that balance, May said, her party would insist on strong measures to address climate change. That could range from Green platform items like a ban on non-electric cars by 2030, to the end of oil patch subsidies, to deeper overall cuts to emissions targets.

The Greens do enjoy improved odds to add more seats. They form the opposition in P.E.I., they won three seats in the recent New Brunswick election, and young people who are worked up about global warming and marching in protests seem likely to vote Green.

Also, the scandals plaguing Liberals have lots of angry Canadians looking for somewhere to park their votes. Traditionally, these soft left-ofcentre votes go to the NDP, but even their support is eroding.

May’s scenario would depend on a Liberal minority, of course. We can’t imagine a Conservative minority doing a deal with the Greens. And a Liberal minority might look to the NDP for support, not the Greens.

Though Canadian voters routinely deliver shocking results, we wouldn’t predict more than a handful of Green seats. But that might still be enough to give them an outsized influence.