Margaret Brigley on the pollster’s art
Margaret Brigley, the Halifax-born and Mount Saint Vincent University-educated CEO of Narrative Research, started out in communications, not market research, but the transition was a natural one. Her passion, she told me this week, has always been telling stories. Market research provides an insight into storytelling in that it gives a peek into the psychology of people, an insight into why they do what they do and, most importantly for our purposes, what they are likely to do in the future.
Though you might not know it, except for the controversy about candidate vetting, Nova Scotia is in the midst of an election — the first of a handful in Canada since the pandemic hit. So Brigley, who has registered a hole-in-one on the golf course but prefers being around the water, whether swimming or sailing, dropped into Saltwire’s Halifax studio to
explain the pollster's craft, why this election is different from those of the past, but how, in some ways, it may be exactly the same.
Our conversation has been abridged and shorted for space reasons.
JD: You've been doing this for a long time. In a broad sense, what do we know about the voting patterns of Nova Scotians?
MB: Well, we have for more than 20 years been tracking satisfaction with provincial governments, and we've also been tracking voting intentions every single quarter, regardless of whether or not there's an election. And we know that Nova Scotians, and Atlantic Canadians, are very passionate about their province, and about their governments as well.
JD: Does one measurement matter more than another?
MB: Well, I think they're both two important metrics. What's been really interesting is, in all of our years tracking satisfaction with provincial governments' performance across Atlantic Canada, we have never seen a provincial government re-elected if their satisfaction numbers were below 50 per cent, and we've never seen them not re-elected if their satisfaction levels were above that.
JD: What do those satisfaction numbers look like for Nova Scotia right now?
MB: Well, this is a really interesting story right now, because things have changed as a result of the pandemic. If I look back to February prepandemic, so February 2020, government satisfaction here in Nova Scotia was like at 48 per cent. So, under that 50 per cent mark. But the pandemic made a difference. Right now, in May of 2021, the satisfaction rate now is 76 per cent, a very high level.
JD: Have you ever seen it that high?
MB: Unprecedented in Nova Scotia. In fact, the last highest was back with John Hamm, and it was then it reached as high as 69 per cent. So, you can see satisfaction is a really important metric. Then we watch, in addition to voting intentions, satisfaction which influences intentions. If people are satisfied, if the electorate is satisfied with the performance, they're not really motivated to make change. So that in itself can influence things like voter turnout.
JD: What's your theory on why the pandemic has helped government satisfaction, and is this so in other provinces?
MB: We have seen unprecedent levels of satisfaction with provincial governments, regardless of political stripe, during the pandemic, but and this really goes to your point, what does it have to do with the pandemic? I think that in general in Nova Scotia, and certainly in Atlantic Canada, the public has been satisfied with the performance of the way that the government has responded and reacted to the crisis at hand. And we need to keep in mind that during a crisis, unless it's a crisis that's caused by the government, if the government is managing it, that's actually good news for them.
JD: So, based on your 50 per cent baseline, this election seems over before it has even begun, or can things change?
MB: I think anything can change in an election. What's really important too is, aside from voter satisfaction, we've got a couple of things that are important considerations this election. One is the election is in the summer. And we know that turnout will be negatively impacted because that's always the case when we see a summertime election. People aren't really as motivated to go turn out. They might be more motivated now to go to the cottage or to visit friends and family, now that we can. So that's one factor. But another really important factor is that you'll recall that the electoral map was changed, right? So, there are a number of dynamics at play here. We've moved from 51 to 55 ridings. And even more importantly, we've got a number of new candidates in ridings. So the Liberals, for instance, they've lost a lot of incumbents, where they've chosen not to run again. That creates a whole different dynamic. The individuals coming in, they don't have that relationship (with voters). And I think the time of change is something that could potentially benefit the opposition, or any other party other than the governing party, depending on the candidates they have.
JD: Will the premier's DUIS be an issue?
MB: Well, we don't know yet. We will be going into the field to collect data during the next tracking. Certainly in May, after his first quarter in power, certainly, he didn't drop satisfaction at all. So he really held his own. Now, certainly the DUI, I don't know what impact that will be. Our polling was before that. But I would question, ... given that it's not a current challenge or issue, ould that be enough to take that satisfaction with the government to a level that would truly impact voting intentions?
JD: What is the narrative for the Progressive Conservatives and the NDP?
MB: We know that the most important issue for Nova Scotians in the past year has been the pandemic and the economy. It's been such a crisis, that's not surprising. But there are other issues that are so important to Nova Scotians, like health care and also the environment, that could be platforms for the opposition, certainly to provide them with an opportunity to show how they might do something different. Because when you've got satisfaction levels as high as they are, the electorate needs to be motivated to make change. They need to be convinced that ... another premier is going to do something differently to really make a difference.
JD: In what other ways do you expect the pandemic to influence the election?
MB: I think that, without a doubt, you won't see the door-to-door knocking that we would have experienced or the larger events that we've experienced in the past. So that makes it more challenging for the parties. And then for any of the candidates, they really need to do everything they can to create a relationship and increase their awareness and familiarity within the electorate.
JD: When you look at everything, all the things that we have talked about, how does this election look?
MB: Well, I think that when you look at the satisfaction levels, and even the voting intentions in May, I would certainly say that I would not expect change. However, as I mentioned, a poll is a snapshot at any point in time, and there are a number of dynamic changes in play right now, especially with the new candidates and changes in the ridings. So, you know, anything can happen in life. And then the other thing that can happen in the election is how people react to problems that may become evident or just the discussions carried on. So, we need to watch the campaign to really see what impact each of the candidates has.