Assad has emerged largely victorious in Syrian civil war
During the Syrian Civil War, the country’s president, Bashar al-assad, has relied on assistance from Russia and Iran to shore up his regime. Today, it is clear they largely won. As Assad reconsolidates control over Syria, many hope that Syria might extricate itself from Iranian influence, with Russian assistance. Is this realistic?
Once Russia entered the Syrian theatre in September 2015, Moscow took control of Syrian skies, to solidify its own interest. Moscow continues to leverage its permanent seat on the UN Security Council to shield Assad from sanctions or other punitive action.
But Moscow is now embroiled in war with Ukraine, and so has less time to worry about Iran. In any case, Russian President Vladimir Putin has not given any public indication that he will limit Iranian forces in Syria. Russia’s entire Syria intervention depended on Iran doing the heavy lifting. This is a major component of how Putin kept the Russian intervention limited and inexpensive.
After all, a Russia-iran convergence to cooperate to stem American influence allowed both to put tactical differences aside. The hope that differences between Russia and Iran will emerge with greater clarity as fighting ends reflects wishful thinking more than reality.
Meanwhile, the Arab world itself is coming to terms with Assad’s political survival as he retains a solid grip on power. He is back in control of most of Syria thanks largely to Russia and Iran, which were always more committed to his survival than Washington was to his removal, even when chemical weapons were fired on rebel areas.
The signs of Arab rapprochement with Damascus are growing — King Abdullah of Jordan spoke to Assad for the first time in a decade in October and the border between Syria and Jordan was fully reopened for trade. Bahrain subsequently opened an embassy in Damascus, and President Assad also visited the United Arab Emirates.
Jordan has been a driving force behind a deal to pipe Egyptian natural gas to Lebanon via Syria. Egyptian and Syrian foreign ministers met for the first time in a decade at the UN General Assembly in September.
The first glimmer of retreat from Syria’s excommunication had started in December 2018, when then-sudanese president Omar al-bashir landed in Damascus. The Saudi strategic decision to re-engage with Damascus really became clear several days after Bashir’s visit, when the United Arab Emirates, another close Saudi ally, reopened its embassy in Damascus. Subsequent events amounted to a thoroughgoing retreat from the Arab world’s diplomatic and commercial boycott of Syria after the civil war began in 2011.
For most Arab governments, led by Saudi Arabia, Iran is the strategic archenemy. Analysts therefore believe that hopes of driving a wedge between Damascus and Tehran are a major motivation for the Arab return to Syria.
But Iran, from Assad’s viewpoint, is not an intruder, but a true ally. Throughout the civil war, the Islamic Republic has stood by Syria through thick and thin, supplying it with Shi’ite militia troops from Lebanon, Afghanistan, Iraq and Pakistan that fought — and got killed — in large numbers for Assad, as well as with sorely needed oil and cash.
Still, the war has been a disaster for Syria. Approximately 600,000 people have died in Syria, more than 100,000 have disappeared, and there are millions more displaced.
While Assad has regained control of 60 per cent of Syrian territory and about half the population, in areas outside the regime’s control, semi-independent political entities have become established. Syria remains divided into four regions: regimecontrolled territory, the autonomous Kurdish area, Turkish areas in the north, and the rebel-controlled Idlib region.
More than a decade of war has led to an unprecedented economic crisis. The damage is estimated at $300 billion, with a drop of about 40 per cent in GDP and 11 million Syrians need humanitarian aid due to a severe lack of food and water.
But the war has fallen off the international radar. Even the Biden administration has unofficially reconciled itself to the idea that the best outcome in Syria is a Tehran-backed Bashar al-assad regime. After all, Washington keeps hoping to re-enter the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) with Iran to limit Tehran’s nuclear ambitions.