Conservatives will be hobbled by their squabbles

Watching the federal Conservative leadership candidates slugging it out for the top job is a bit like going to a dinner party during which a fight breaks out between the host couple.

You just want to slide off your chair and disappear.

After two previous Conservative leaders failed to snag the prime ministerial silverware, I guess they wanted to try something different this time.

Yes, there is going to be debate and disagreement in any leadership race. And candidates want to give voters a taste of who they are. But that can be done without hurling personal insults and beating each other to a pulp in a barroom brawl. They are, after all, still on the same team.

In boxing — the metaphor always used for political debates — there is a thing called the Queensberry Rules which require opponents to wear padded gloves and follow certain protocols to protect the integrity of the sport.

Maybe the Conservative leadership hopefuls should read those rules rather than tear the party apart in public.

Or maybe they actually want the bare-knuckle fight to change the game of Canadian politics.

In one corner, we have Angry Anti-establishment Man Pierre Poilievre, who is “mad as hell and not going to take this anymore,” to quote the seething Howard Beale character in the 1976 film Network.

Poilievre is the perceived frontrunner, drawing large crowds and social media followers with his populist appeal. He has attacked the Bank of Canada, advocated cryptocurrency and supported the convoy protests.

His top contender is Jean Charest, who is positioning himself as a stable politician with gobs of experience in Canadian politics. His tenure as premier of Quebec, which ended a decade ago, is shrouded in accusations of corruption and his former membership in the Quebec provincial Liberal party makes him an easy target for Poilievre.

In other corners of the Conservative boxing ring, we have Leslyn Lewis, Roman Baber, Jean Scott Aitchison and Patrick Brown. Their positions range from antivaccine to pro-life, and their ranks feature another stable, calm politician in Aitchison.

These candidates are fighting for votes in a fractured Conservative party with its duelling regional factions. The trouble is that they are also trying to present themselves as prime ministerial material to the wider Canadian voting public. Voters will be watching.

There is no doubt that the Conservatives can smell the opportunity here.

Voters are getting Trudeau fatigue. Some are even showing Trudeau hate. That was loud and clear during the convoy protests.

For now, the minority Liberals have the deal with the NDP that buffers them against a no-confidence vote and a snap election. But that deal could fall apart at any time. The Conservatives know this.

Then there is the state of the economy right now. We may be done with the pandemic (although the pandemic is not done with us), but runaway inflation, spiking fuel prices and crises in housing and health care are making Canadians increasingly uncomfortable. This is low-hanging fruit for the Conservative party.

When people are fearful and angry, they reach for extremes and seize upon the scapegoats on offer. Trudeau and the Liberals will be easy targets for the next Conservative leader.

We’ve seen that stirring up anger can get votes. This worked well for He Who Can’t Be Named in the U.S. The question is, will this strategy have broad appeal in vote-rich cities in Canada?

There is also a big elephant in the room for the Conservatives: abortion. The leaked document indicating that the U.S. Supreme Court will overturn Roe v. Wade and remove the constitutional right to abortion in that country is bringing renewed attention to the issue in Canada.

This is not good for Conservatives who are divided along the lines of social and fiscal. At the moment, candidates are staying silent on the issue. But the official decision will be released before the leadership vote.

Abortion could wrench open the long-standing chasm among the Conservatives and divide them further.

This will not help their election prospects.