Events nudge Poilievre closer to power
Inflation, and rising interest rates, both help Poilievre.
Pierre Poilievre had a good week. Nay, a very good week.
And he didn’t even have to do anything to get it.
The rise in interest rates. The application of the Emergencies Act. And a trip to London.
Events, dear boy, events: Long-ago British Prime Minister Harold Macmillan was asked by a journalist about his biggest political challenges. “Events, dear boy, events,” was Macmillan’s pithy reply.
Events cut both ways, however. What’s bad for Liberal Justin Trudeau is, most days, good for Conservative Pierre Poilievre. And those three events have arguably nudged the freshly minted Tory leader closer to power.
Let’s look at each. First, the Bank of Canada.
On Wednesday, Canada’s central bankers stepped back from the abyss, somewhat, and raised key interest rates by 0.5 percentage points. That’s better than what some had been expecting, which was .75 per cent.
But, still. It’s the sixth interest rate hike in 2022. The socalled policy rate is now 3.75 per cent— the highest it’s been since 2008. And the Bank of Canada is all but promising that more interest rate hikes are coming — their size to be determined by “how inflation and inflation expectations are responding.”
For most Canadians, that sounds decidedly ominous. It means that, if inflation isn’t presently hurting you, interest rates will. Because the cost of borrowing for anything — to buy a house or a car, to use a credit card — is going up and up.
Inflation, and rising interest rates, both help Poilievre. For months, he’s been hammering away at the Bank of Canada’s fiscal policy. At the start, his rhetoric was overheated — and his swipes at Bank of Canada officials, who can’t defend themselves, was unfair.
Now, Poilievre looks prescient. If the central bankers don’t do enough, the cost of living will get worse. If they do too much, we could be pushed into a recession. Either, the Tory leader can’t lose.
The second “event” that assists Poilievre is the inquiry into the use of the Emergencies Act, presided over by Justice Paul Rouleau.
Rouleau has ruled the inquiry with professionalism and restraint. But the inquiry is more likely to be remembered as a lot of blameshifting by the people who let the Ottawa occupation go on for weeks.
Police agencies, in particular, look terrible. After previously nudging the government into applying the Emergencies Act, the police — from the RCMP to the OPP — are now claiming they didn’t. The record suggests otherwise.
For Poilievre, this also amounts to a win. While he got far too close to the “Freedom Convoy” types — whose leaders are now facing criminal prosecution for multiple serious charges, Poilievre’s earlier insistence that the Act was overkill may end up being seen as true.
The inquiry may well find that the Trudeau government used a legislative sledgehammer to kill a housefly. And Poilievre, again, would be vindicated.
The third event happened in the pages of this newspaper: My colleague Brian Lilley’s revelation that taxpayers shelled out $6,000 a night for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau — or Governorgeneral Mary Simon, we’re not sure who — to stay at London’s Corinthia Hotel.
Trudeau and Simon were in London for the funeral of the Queen, as they should have been. But, by any reasonable standard, $6,000 a night is outrageous. Given that U.S. President Joe Biden stayed at his country’s embassy for the funeral — costing American taxpayers little to nothing — makes Trudeau and Simon’s profligacy completely unacceptable.
At a time of surging inflation, and rising cost of borrowing, $6,000 a night looks very, very bad. As Tory ethics critic Michael Barrett told Lilley :
“At a time when Canadians are being forced to choose between heating their homes and feeding their families, this type of excess is shocking. Prime Minister Trudeau should explain to Canadians why he is living a lifestyle of luxury at their expense.”
Three recent events, all unhelpful to Justin Trudeau. And therefore all quite helpful to Pierre Poilievre.
Sometimes, in politics, you don’t need to do anything — just stand there and reap the rewards.
For Pierre Poilievre, this has been one of those weeks.