Will long-suffering Haiti be OK?
Things could get worse before they get better
So, where does violencewracked Haiti go from here? Can it actually get any worse? Well, perhaps it can. Yes, the discredited former prime minister, Ariel Henri, has finally agreed to step aside. In addition, the finer details of a governing Presidential Transition Council, composed of nine representatives from various sectors of Haitian political and civil society, have essentially worked themselves out.
Plans for a Multinational Security Support force have also been carefully cobbled together. A Kenyan-led mission of 1,000 police officers, bolstered by a robust military force of some 2,000 West African soldiers from Benin, is on standby.
Consequently, a cleared path to societal order and political pluralism appear to be delicately falling into place. That, in turn, should set the stage, at least theoretically, for presidential and legislative elections in the coming months.
MURDEROUS GANGS
But the arguably 300-plus well-armed gangs roaming the streets and alleys of Port-au-prince are still a significant security threat. They already control more than 80 per cent of the country’s capital and have established roadblocks on many city thoroughfares.
For 2023, it is estimated that these vicious gangs were responsible for killing almost 4,000 Haitians and kidnapping another 3,000 or so. And, as you could well imagine, those totals have only continued to grow exponentially early into 2024.
More worrisome, the murderous gangs (some put the number of members at 10,000) are apparently working together and plotting strategies to eliminate what remains of Haiti’s ramshackle and over-stretched National Police. Indeed, armed gangs are evidently attacking and ransacking police stations at will.
Add to this very volatile mix the grim socio-economic situation on the ground in Haiti.
Millions of Haitians are in desperate need of humanitarian aid, hunger is becoming a major problem and cholera cases are rising rapidly.
Moreover, conditions of starvation and acute malnutrition have grown worse over the last few weeks and months. Hundreds of thousands of Haitians have also been forced from their homes, complicated further by disease spreading through several squatter communities, and health infrastructure and medical supplies scarcely to be found anywhere.
POLITICAL CLIMATE
When you take all this together, it certainly has the potential to increase substantially the number of Haitian migrants forced to seek refuge in the United States. And this likely surge in Haitians will present U.S. President Joe Biden with another major electoral headache and political problem.
There is already some speculation that contingency planning involves once again utilizing the U.S. Naval Base at Guantánamo, Cuba as a temporary holding location or prison. This was done in the early 1990s by the Bill Clinton administration, with mostly poor results for all concerned.
Additionally, there are certain to be major bumps along the road for the newly minted transitional council. There have already been reports of the interim government being plagued by sharp panel member negotiations, numerous disagreements and frequent infighting.
If Haitian history is any indication, this type of political forum is more likely to tear itself apart than to build a viable consensus. More to the point, how exactly will they come together to select a new acting Haitian president and prime minister?
As Haitian-born political scientist Robert Fatton has argued, choosing a new political leadership will be a tall order, and an even taller hill to climb to keep those individuals in power.
“And that will be the most difficult and divisive issue. The road will be, at best, long and arduous,” he explains.
ONGOING CHAOS
Of course, what does any of this mean for the unruly Haitian gangs? The country’s two largest prisons have recently been emptied of over 3,000 dangerous criminals.
They are seeking to control as much of the country as possible, including the main seaports, airports, energy infrastructure and even the presidential palace. How can this gang warfare be tamed, as dead bodies continue to be left in the streets?
It is also worth pointing out that the Kenya-led stabilization force is not entirely a sure thing. It is largely contingent on sufficient financial resources from contributing countries (including Canada’s $80 million allocation), domestic political buy-in in Kenya and a warm welcome from the majority of Haitians. But I’m not convinced that the ongoing chaos and instability in Haiti is something that the Kenyan government would want any part of.
Unfortunately, when it comes to Haiti, there are no quick fixes. And when the U.S. government (which has had a long and terrible history of interfering in the country’s internal affairs) is factored into the equation, the math never seems to add up for ordinary Haitians.
I hope that I’m all wrong about this, but I have an awful feeling that things are going to get a lot worse in Haiti before they get any better.