The Chronicle Herald (Provincial)
Opportunities, barriers for crime in pandemic
Sir Francis Bacon once said, “Opportunity makes a thief.” As St. Francis Xavier psychologist Margo Watts considers the impact of COVID-19 on crime, she sees a world of shifting opportunities.
There's decreased opportunity, for instance, for traffic offences, as people simply aren't driving as much, while at the same time there's more opportunity for commercial theft, as many businesses are vacant.
Individual accounts are varying particularly when it comes to violent crime. Miami, for instance, had its longest streak in 63 years without a homicide, while Nova Scotia has experienced its worst mass killing in Canadian history.
Watts, who teaches forensic psychology, cautions there are some caveats to consider before jumping to conclusions. Pandemics don't happen often, so data showing their connection to crime is almost non-existent for them. And for the stats that do exist, there are other factors at play. For instance, policing practices may have changed in light of the pandemic as well and domestic violence may not be reported right away.
“We have to be careful about drawing grand conclusions,” she said. “There are a lot of things that could be contributing to what appears to be a reduction in crime.”
But Watts says, there are some general trends that can be predicted based on past changes in types of crime or sites of crime in the aftermath, or during, natural disasters such as hurricanes and floods that seem to coincide with what could be expected to happen in the disrupted environment of a pandemic.
HEIGHTENED GUARDIANSHIP
Many crimes are crimes of opportunity, such as stealing from an unlocked car or robbing a vacant home, Watts said. But with people home more, there's an expectation that those opportunities will be decreased.
“Some opportunities are going to be denied,” she said. “People aren't going to break into houses when people are likely to be home.”
St. Thomas University criminology professor Chris Mccormick said with people home more there is a heightened sense of guardianship.
“For this reason crimes of opportunity, like theft from backyards and garages, is going to decrease,” he said.
“In addition, shoplifting is going to decrease, as (are) assaults outside bars, for example. Any place where people routinely congregate or go is going to have lower location-based offenses as a result of the shutdown."
DOMESTIC VIOLENCE
While there are areas that are expected to decrease in crime, psychologists and social workers worry about people for whom home is not a safe place.
“It's like imprisoning the victim,” Watts said.
The pandemic and the impacts it's had socially and economically have the potential to create a pressure cooker atmosphere in some homes, says Watts. Families are experiencing stress from job losses and being trapped at home. This can exacerbate an already difficult home life.
“Interpersonal offenses between acquaintances, such as child and elder abuse, and domestic violence between spouses is going to increase, especially with the added pressures of less money, anxiety, and frustration over the indeterminate character of how long this all lasts,” Mccormick says.
Watts worries those at risk may not be able to get the help they need.
“The most vulnerable are increasingly vulnerable,” she said.
She said this risk is heightened from both increased exposure between victim and abuser, but also because it's harder for people to report the abuse.
“How do you report that your husband is abusive when they're home all day?” she says.
Some countries, particularly in Europe, have established ways for women to covertly report abuse at places like pharmacies to prevent raising suspicions of their partner. Those countries have also opened up thousands of hotel rooms to offer safe places for victims of domestic violence to go to.
Children, likewise, aren't having the time away from home, so abuse that might be picked up by a teacher isn't being reported now.
“Kids are always vulnerable to the conditions they can't control,” Watts said. “This has got to be a very difficult time for kids if there's any types of abuse.”
The true statistics of how COVID19 has affected crime remains to be seen and studied and researchers will have many questions to consider. Will arsons be connected to the pandemic? Does teenage boredom come into play? Do horrific killings have any correlation?
“All in all, there are going to be shut down-related changes in crime, although it is going to be difficult in the short term to see the patterns,” Mccormick said.
But crime is seldom random, he added.