Early poll puts N.S. support slightly in favour of Conservatives

An early poll of Nova Scotia voters indicates a tight race in the federal election, with essentially a three-way race with the Conservatives slightly ahead of the Liberals and NDP.

These results, part of Narrative Research's Atlantic Quarterly, come from an independent telephone survey of Atlantic Canadians conducted from August 15 to 22 and were released Thursday.

“I would say that these results suggest that we've got a spirited race ahead and the next few weeks will really be important to watch in terms of people getting to know the leaders, understanding the platforms and the issues that are important to them — how they might be reflected in those platforms,” said Margaret Brigley, CEO of Narrative Research.

Decided voter intentions place the Conservatives at 36 per cent, followed by the Liberals at 33 per cent and NDP at 28 per cent.

The support for the Liberals is down 16 points from May, when they polled at 49 per cent.

The Conservatives gained 15 points, up from 21 per cent, while the NDP is up five points from their 23 per cent support in May.

“Here in Nova Scotia, we have 11 seats,” Brigley said. “(In) 2015, it was a Liberal sweep — 11 of 11 — and 2019, 10 of 11 were Liberal with one Conservatives in West

Nova and I would say that given these results, it would suggest that it's not likely to be a Liberal sweep, certainly, within Nova Scotia. And it's a three-way race.

“It'll be very interesting to see what happens, particularly in the next few weeks. We have the debates coming up, French one tonight (Thursday) and the English following next week. All of those will really have the potential to make a difference.”

The Green Party dropped from seven per cent to one per cent since May. The People's Party of Canada stands unchanged at one per cent.

Twenty-four per cent of Nova Scotia respondents were undecided, six per cent declined to say which party they support and four per cent do not plan to vote.

Brigley said the number of undecided voters is about typical to what pollsters would see early in a campaign.

“These results do reflect an opinion at a certain point in time,” she said. “They're early on in the campaign and this would have been before ... policies were laid out in platforms and things like that. This is one point in time, so it really suggests that there is a tight race going on and much can happen. We've just seen here in Nova Scotia that campaigns can certainly make a difference and I might suggest that may be the case here federally, as well.”

The results vary by region in the province, as the Liberals are ahead in Halifax, while the Conservatives are ahead in the rest of mainland. The NDP and the Conservatives are neck-and-neck in Cape Breton, followed by the Liberals.

The NDP tops the choices among people in the 18-34 age range, while the middle age segment (35-54) is more likely to vote for the Conservatives. The Liberals are ahead of the Conservatives among the 55-plus crowd, followed by the NDP.

All that said, more decided voters prefer Justin Trudeau as prime minister, (32 per cent, down from 35 per cent in May). The NDP'S Jagmeet Singh is at 25 per cent and Conservative Leader Erin O'toole is preferred by 22 per cent.

The overall results are based on a sample of 341 Nova Scotians and accurate to within plus or minus 5.3 percentage points, 95 out of 100 times.