2021 — Time to let numbers do the talking

“Let’s crunch some of the most notable, game-changing and thoughtprovoking statistics that help to tell the numerical story of 2021.”

Edmund Burke, the 18th century Irish philosopher, once noted that “The age of chivalry is gone. That of the sophisters, economists & calculators has succeeded.”

And while Mr. Burke was actually bemoaning the loss of civility, gallantry, and especially the treatment of Marie Antoinette at the hands of the French anarchists, his words nicely encapsulate the way statistics and data came to pervade our daily 2021 lives.

Indeed, with the dolorous negativity of daily COVID-19 reports, the gyrations of the economy, the eye-popping housing prices, a federal election that set a number of unfortunate records, and disturbing global warming trends — the real estate agents, economists, and calculators certainly succeeded in capturing the news headlines this past year. And, to some extent, made statisticians out of us all.

With that in mind, let’s crunch some of the most notable, gamechanging and thought-provoking statistics that help to tell the numerical story of 2021.

The federal election makes for a good starting point for this motley assemblage of data points, given that an astonishing 154 polls were conducted and released during the short 36-day campaign.

And while the Trudeau Liberals won the 2021 election with the most seats, they did so by breaking several records for electoral futility. To begin with, they actually obtained fewer votes than Conservatives. And with 32.6 per cent of the vote, they ended up with the weakest mandate of any government in Canadian history — breaking their own record set in the 2019 election. That, coupled with the fourth lowest ever turnout — at 62.3 per and dangerously close to the record low of 58.8 per cent in 2008 — saw the Liberals supported by only about one in five electors. And, incredibly, in Saskatchewan, they were limited to just 10.6 per cent of the vote — the lowest popular vote share for any governing party in any province in Canadian federal election history!

The “dismal science” of economics also captured its share of the public’s attention in 2021, with almost all of the top line macroeconomic indicators flashing green by year’s end. In terms of the economy as a whole, the lifting of provincial public health restrictions drove a strong gain in economic output, with real GDP growing at a 5.4-per-cent annualized rate in the third quarter of 2021. Certainly a long way from 2020, when the economy shrank 5.4 per cent — which was the steepest annual decline since quarterly data were first recorded in 1961. And with GDP being a significant market mover, the stock market followed suit in 2021, with a portfolio-pleasing 22-per-cent gain.

As well as the strong economic output numbers, the unemployment rate fell throughout the year, finishing at six per cent, indicating almost all of the three million jobs lost during the pandemic were replaced. Although, scratching below the surface of this complex economic indicator shows that the recovery hasn't been for everyone, with 300,000 self-employed Canadians still out of the economy.

On the downside, inflation reared its ugly head, with a surge in consumer demand, supply chain blockages, higher world energy prices and droughts in the western U.S. pushing up food prices. The latest (November) reading showed the Consumer Price Index holding at a 4.7-per-cent increase on a year-over-year basis (excluding gasoline, it was 3.6 per cent).

With the exception of the inflation rate, the most watched price in Canada these days emanates from the housing market. It was another record-breaking year, which saw the median Canadian house price reaching $720,850 (Halifax $488,382) by year-end, according to CRA. Housing prices are being supercharged by historically low interest rates and limited supply — as well as being goosed by the increased popularity of “blind-bidding,” a system which prevents prospective homebuyers from knowing the bids of others. Many economists and some real estate agents argue it drives up home prices, since it can lead to some buyers overpaying, often by tens or even hundreds of thousands of dollars, which many economists see as irrational.

Some of the year’s most thoughtprovoking numbers pertain to the environment, and in particular, climate change. Alas, the data is increasingly dire, with global CO2 concentrations rising to 415 parts per million, which is 36.4-per-cent higher than as recently as 1990. And it’s a quantum jump from a reading of 277 ppm at the start of the Industrial Revolution in 1750. Let’s spare a thought for the inhabitants of Lytton, B.C., who suffered through the highest daily temperature in Canadian meteorological history on June 29 when it hit 49.6 Celsius.

And for those feeling poll-ish? There were a plethora of year-end polls that added to our understanding of what it means to be Canadian. For example, a Leger poll of 1,547 Canadians found that 65 per cent are proud of their country, versus 29 per cent who aren’t. As well, an Association of Canadian Studies poll showed that despite a sharp pandemic-induced decline in the number of Canadians attending religious services in 2021, there was only a statistically insignificant drop in our beliefs in God.

In closing, the “Stat of the Year” for 2021 comes from our Statscan mortality tables, which show that, despite COVID and a short but vicious recession, Canadians are living longer than ever: with an expected longevity of 82.66 years for a child born in 2021. U.S. data shows that our neighbours to the south can expect to “clock off” at 78.99 years. Oh, Canada!