Unpredictable off-season starts with the Vegas expansion draft
The first expansion draft in the salary-cap era has even the most seasoned NHL general managers unsure of what is going to happen over the next few weeks.
“You expect the unexpected,” Toronto Maple Leafs GM Lou Lamoriello said.
The most unpredictable and fascinating off-season in more than a decade has arrived.
Uncertainty runs from the Vegas Golden Knights’ expansion draft next week through the New Jersey Devils’ decision with the top pick in the entry draft to a free agent market that hinges significantly on how much the salary cap goes up — if at all.
Trades could be coming fast and furious as Vegas GM George McPhee stockpiles assets in exchange for agreeing to select or not select players in the June 21 expansion draft. Teams have to decide who to protect — seven forwards, three defenceman and a goaltender or eight skaters at any position and a goaltender — and there should be some roster juggling around the league before protected lists must be submitted Saturday afternoon.
“I expect something to transpire and the expansions that I’ve been through in the past, it certainly does,” Lamoriello said. “When there are decisions that have to be made, you’d rather make them proactive rather than reactive. People are going to be trying to do things, whether they have one too many defencemen or whether they have one too many forwards or whether they have needs that they could possibly correct by taking a surplus off somebody else.”
After talking to his colleagues around the league, McPhee said he believes the expansion draft will be more productive for the franchise’s future than he first thought.
“There are teams that really want to protect some people and protect their rosters and they are willing to pay a pretty fair price to get us to lay off certain people and go in a different direction,” McPhee said. “So in those instances we’ll be able to get young players or some draft picks that will help us down the road.”
The expansion draft is drawing so much interest that a group of University of Toronto researchers put together a tool they say shows the optimal protections and picks. Vegas, for its part, hired as a hockey operations analyst General Fanager founder Tom Poraszka, who made the first online expansion draft simulator.
Once all 30 protected lists are revealed on Sunday, Vegas has a 72-hour window to negotiate with any unprotected restricted or unrestricted free agents and make its selections, which will be announced on June 21.
McPhee wields a lot of power because of that, and it’s fair to wonder how he’ll put together an expansion roster from scratch.
“I’m not sure George is going to be willing to tell me what player he wants,” said Washington Capitals GM Brian MacLellan, who was McPhee’s assistant for seven years. “It’s frustrating you’re going to lose a good player with the expansion draft and you’re going to have to react to it.”
The entire NHL is going to have to react to what Vegas does, which should be fun.