Canadians, wake up to U.S. ‘woo’

There are several reasons why Canada has been insulated from the populism and polarization found in America. A multi-party system means Canadian voters can choose parties along the political spectrum and not be shoehorned into one of two parties. In Canada, immigration and trade command majority support. And for needed medical services, or economic hardship, or job loss, Canadians land in a generous safety-net. Canadians are generally more satisfied with their lives than Americans and less vulnerable to the siren-call of populism.

Yet Canada is being tested by Conservatives who road-test populist messaging borrowed from Donald Trump; trying to woo voters from outside the mainstream. Doug Ford won the Ontario election promising to take on people who “drink champagne with their pinkies in the air and look down on the common people.” Alberta’s Jason Kenney talks about “self-appointed smart people and media elites” who disagree with his take on climate change. Andrew Scheer calls the federal carbon tax a “cash tax grab by elites who don’t care about the impact on ordinary people.”

Conservatives emboldened by the success of populist campaigns elsewhere will make the 2019 election, for the Liberals, a fight against the polarization of Canada. Keeping Canada grounded in the middle is Justin Trudeau’s grand bargain: that Canada can develop resources while combating climate change.

But this bargain faces headwinds.

The implementation of the carbon tax will be bumpy now that conservative Ontario pulled out and joined Saskatchewan to challenge the carbon tax in court while left-leaning B.C. adds to Canada’s polarization with its own court challenge against Trans Mountain’s pipeline, even though Canada’s majority favour both.

Conservative messaging has become more extreme. Calling asylum seekers “a crisis” is an exaggeration, but it may be to discourage defections to Maxime Bernier’s new People’s Party of Canada who oppose the “cult of diversity” and sees danger in “extreme multiculturalism.” The victory of the right-wing Coalition Avenir Quebec also suggests the appetite for a harder line on immigration. Populist voices will grow louder as the election nears, so buckle up; in this election, we will have to navigate thick populist fog of hyperbola to reach our best decision making and that will require some homework on our part.

The Liberals, who occupy the mushy-middle ground, understand the fringes could be persuaded to stray, but also understand that with clear-eyed open-debate of their values, their record and their vision, voters will be open to stay the course.