Byelection is bad news for Conservatives

Political analysts have debated for years on whether federal byelections are a midterm report card for the party in power.

However, when it’s seven months before a general election, involves a federal leader, all-star candidates and — in this case — is specific to B.C., it is indeed a litmus test.

NDP leader Jagmeet Singh, who some expected would lose the byelection in Burnaby South on Monday, easily won with 8,884 votes, 39 per cent and 13 points ahead of Richard T. Lee, the Liberal candidate and a former MLA.

Conservative Jay Shin was a distant third, collecting 22.5 per cent of the vote.

What’s troubling for the Conservatives is the surprising performance by Laura-Lynn Thompson of the People’s Party of Canada — 2,420 votes and 10.6 per cent.

If the Maxime Bernier-led PPC is capable of grabbing 10 per cent of the vote in any Okanagan riding, it means bad news for the Conservatives. Much will depend on the candidates the PPC recruits.

The PPC did poorly in the two other byelections held in Eastern Canada ... but this is B.C. and chances are if the PPC wasn’t there, those votes would, in almost all cases, would go to the Conservatives.

What’s also good news for the Liberals is that although they lost, Singh remains leader of the federal NDP.

Singh’s approval rating is poor among Canadians and there was speculation that had he lost, Nathan Cullen would replace him as leader in time for the October 21 election. But, give Singh a chance. Having met him, he’s a smart man, amicable, full of ideas and he may connect with Canadians. It all depends on how he does on the floor of the House of Commons.

Many Canadians — and not just NDPers — were impressed by former leader Tom Mulcair when he grilled Stephen Harper on the Mike Duffy Senate scandal. Mulcair’s skills as a retired lawyer were on display. Many forget that Mulcair and the NDP were first in the polls at the start of the 2015 campaign before tanking.

Once upon a time in the Okanagan, it was a foregone conclusion the Conservatives would sweep the valley.

They very well could, especially if the SNC-Lavalin issue continues to erupt.

What Monday’s results in Burnaby mean is that the Conservatives will face challenges of their own.