Hebert

But the Conservative leader’s biggest problem so far is neither his shadow cabinet nor his low profile, but the fact that he is failing to make a good first impression on a growing number of Canadians.

They are entitled to ask which is the real O’Toole: The leadership candidate who railed against his main rival’s centrist views on his way to victory, or the party leader who swears he would govern from the centre on the lead-up to a federal campaign.

The pandemic has complicated the life of all opposition parties, but it has also restored some of the NDP’s sense of purpose by allowing Jagmeet Singh and his team to focus on issues that play to the party’s strengths and history.

The NDP’s pitch to end for-profit long-term care and bring the system under the Canada Health Act will probably not get the party very far in Quebec, where the political culture is hostile to a larger federal role in social policy.

But it could play well in places like Ontario and British Columbia, where the party has a real shot at improving its electoral lot. It is also an issue the New Democrats are comfortable fighting for.

That makes Green party Leader Annamie Paul’s decision to run again in the Liberal stronghold of Toronto Centre a big gamble. The upside is that she already has boots on the ground, having run in the riding in a recent byelection. Another plus is Toronto Centre’s location at ground zero of the English-language national media.

But if her hope is to win the seat by wooing local NDP supporters and her larger plan to overtake and eventually replace the New Democrats on the federal scene, she may be a campaign too late. In the last election, the Greens boasted a sure-footed leader in Elizabeth May against a rookie New Democrat rival. This time the roles are reversed.

Finally, expect the Bloc Quebecois to spend more time basking in the sunshine of Francois Legault’s government than sharing the stage with its sovereigntist brother-in-arms in the National Assembly.

A Mainstreet poll published this week pegged the Coalition Avenir Quebec at 48 per cent in provincial voting intentions, versus 11 per cent for the Parti Quebecois.