Why is the referendum rigged to fail?

The question of changing the Island’s system of electing MLAs was raised at the Conservative leadership debate in Summerside on Tuesday night. Unlike other subjects where the five candidate’s trip over one another trying to say the same thing differently, Dennis King was the only candidate who unequivocally supported the idea of proportional representation.

In 2015, Wade MacLauchlan won 66 per cent of the seats in the P.E.I. Legislature with only 41 per cent of the vote. With only four percent fewer votes, 37 per cent, the Conservatives only got 30 percent of the seats. Both the Greens and the NDP received 11 per cent of the vote and the Green’s got a seat, but the NDP didn’t.

The present first-past-the-post system worked when there was only two parties and a greater political involvement. Today, there are at least four parties and the interest in traditional old-style politics, the ins vs the outs, has waned. The results of the 2015 election, coupled with lop-sided results in other earlier elections, sparked an interest in finding another way to choose governments.

Mix-member proportional was the preferred choice in a 2016 plebiscite that was ignored because of claims the turnout was too low, even though 52 per cent of the 37,000 Islanders who voted, favoured it. It might have been the first time in the Island’s history where people who didn’t bother to cast a ballot had more influence than those who voted.

However, legislation was passed establishing the upcoming referendum to be held in conjunction with the up-coming provincial election.

“The purpose of this act is to make the process for the referendum transparent and fair in order to obtain a clear expression of the will of Islanders . . .”

Fairness is in the eye of the beholder, what’s fair to some, is not to others. While Mr. MacLauchlan can become premier for four years with less than 50 per cent support from the electorate throughout the Island, his government has established a different set of rules for the referendum.

For those Islanders who want to change the electoral process to mixed-member PR, they, the Yes voters, must get more than 50 per cent of the all ballots cast, and they must also get more than 50 per cent of the ballots cast in 60 per cent of the ridings.

To win the referendum, the Yes side must get more than 50 per cent in at least 16 ridings, plus more than 50 per cent over all. Given the demographics of the Island, with more than 60 per cent of the population living in the greater Summerside and Charlottetown areas, it is not inconceivable that PR could get more than 50 per cent of all the ballots cast, but if the majority of their votes comes from the 12 seats in those urban areas they would lose the referendum.

Some might say that’s okay, after all we’re a rural province, which is true.

But the Island is not the small ‘c’ conservative rural province that some people like to think it is. In fact, Islanders are more progressive than the so-called urbanites of central Canada. When it comes to politics and elections, we have led, not followed.

While still a colony, the Island was one of the first to have representative government. For years there were dual-ridings, giving Islanders, not one, but two votes in each election. More recently, the Island was the first province to elect a woman as premier. The Island was also the first province to elect a premier who didn’t come from a European background.

Islanders know how to do the right thing without rigging the game. The requirement of more than 50 per cent in 60 per cent of the ridings doesn’t seem fair.

Why? Are they so afraid of losing, they have to rig the game? It’s not scaring Dennis King in his leadership run. It might not help him, but it doesn’t scare him.