Nova Scotia looks like land of promise
Conservatives optimistic despite being shut out of province in 2015 election
Alfie MacLeod was once a shepherd. As Cape Breton tried to boost its economy in 1975, it imported 1,500 sheep from Scotland, and MacLeod was hired to look after them during their years of quarantine.
As the federal Conservative candidate in the riding of Cape Breton-Canso, MacLeod has built a profile from his history of eclectic roles – coal mine inspector, pro bono auctioneer, justice of the peace, member of the provincial legislature for 16 years.
Conditions are choice for Conservatives to win certain seats in Nova Scotia, despite the Liberal’s blanket success of all 32 seats in Atlantic Canada in the last election. Liberal incumbents are retiring, voters are conflating the unpopular Liberal premier with the federal party, and most importantly to a region where the candidate factor weighs so strong, the Tories have recruited candidates with established names.
This summer MacLeod campaigned in a riding that has been held by Liberal MP Rodger Cuzner for the past 19 years. Cuzner announced in April he will not reoffer, nor will Mark Eyking, the Liberal incumbent in the other Cape Breton riding.
“This conversation wouldn’t have happened in the last 20 years, that the Conservatives could win seats in Nova Scotia,” says Tim Powers, a Conservative commentator from Newfoundland who is vice-chair of a public affairs consulting firm, Summa Strategies. “Frustration with (the premier), the health-care debate, the two long-serving MPs stepping out, two well-known MLAs stepping in, all create the conditions where it could be possible for the Conservatives to win those seats.”
The health-care debate refers to the acute doctor shortages in the province, where 52,000 people do not have a family physician according to the Nova Scotia Health Authority.
Historically, after the federal Liberals swept all but one riding in Atlantic Canada in 1993, the next election saw heavy turnover. In that case, the Cape Breton ridings swung to the New Democrats, but in this campaign, the NDP has not yet nominated its candidates in those ridings.
Another vulnerable riding is Bill Casey’s riding of Cumberland-Colchester, where the Tory candidate is Scott Armstrong, a former MP and school principal. When Armstrong goes door knocking one evening in August, he already knows many of the residents – a strawberry farmer, a professional poker player, an Ethiopian statistician who was resealing a driveway.
The Liberal candidate in the riding is Lenore Zann, who is also a well-known name as an MLA for six years (she also had an acting career, during which she became the voice of a character in a television series of X-men and appeared on stage in P.E.I.) She was part of the NDP caucus and later an independent, and she raises similar issues in her current federal campaign for the Liberals.
“One of the main issues that we’re very, very, very concerned about is climate change,” she says, noting the risk of coastal erosion and tropical storms. “And one other concern I have is bees,” she adds, explaining their importance to the ecosystem. “I want to make sure that the health of bees is kept in everybody’s mind’s eye.”
The Liberals candidates on Cape Breton are Mike Kelloway, who has worked in education for 22 years, and Jaime Battiste, a Mi’kmaq historian and legal adviser who, if elected, would become Nova Scotia’s first Indigenous member of Parliament.
“The Liberal nomination contests were competitive and robust,” says Tom Urbaniak, a political science professor at Cape Breton University. “The candidates who have emerged are energetic, people with community leadership experience, so they will mount a serious and sophisticated campaign.”
He says the candidate factor is often considered to account for five per cent of a voter’s decision, but that the factor is more important in Atlantic Canada where people are geographically distant from Ottawa and want an accessible politician.
MacLeod might be that politician for some voters. On a recent weekend he drove 1,200 km around the island to attend events, and as a justice of the peace, he has been solemnizing weddings on the side.
“Actually I just did one on Saturday past,” he says, “for a young girl I’ve known forever and three days.”