A post-pandemic world
COVID-19 impacts on P.E.I. will linger long after the virus
The long-term consequences of the pandemic are still largely unknown and will be for some time.
But there will be significant societal and economic consequences, both positive and negative; many will only become apparent with time. It may be time to begin preparing for some of the more likely consequences now.
In the short term, there will be considerable negative economic and health consequences. The measures taken across the region and the country are likely to be successful in preventing the worst scenario outcomes of the pandemic and, indeed, there is clear evidence that the measures to isolate the population have worked, particularly in Atlantic Canada, where there has been a high compliance rate with the measures to curb the spread of the disease.
Isolation is, however, creating other potentially longerterm consequences. It’s likely that addictions are on the increase as a response to social isolation and the stress caused by the pandemic. Anxiety, driven by the personal impacts of the pandemic on the health and economic well-being of individuals, will clearly increase mental health issues across the country.
Angus Reid just reported that 50 per cent of the population rate their mental health as worsening during the pandemic. Domestic abuse is on the rise as the result of isolation and the added pressures caused by the pandemic.
While it’s perhaps early to speculate, there are likely to be many changes to the economy as a result of COVID-19. For example, there is likely to be a lasting legacy of more people working from home. This could directly impact the demand for commercial space over time.
The pace of globalization will slow and perhaps even reverse somewhat as countries understand the need for critical strategic supplies to be manufactured domestically. Supply chains will need to be reconsidered.
More supply independence will create new manufacturing and service opportunities across the country, especially in terms of medical supplies and medicines.
In Nova Scotia, Stanfields is producing protective personal gowns; in New Brunswick, LuminUltra is producing chemical agents for testing for the virus; and, in P.E.I., Top Dog Manufacturing is producing a new reusable protective gown. More domestic drug production should also be considered given most of these supplies are from countries like China and India.
The pandemic has provided people with an unprecedented time to reflect on the importance of their freedoms. Canadians will better understand the importance of their liberties.
COVID-19 has led to incredible innovation and creativity, especially for those forced to conduct their businesses using a completely different model. I would expect home delivery for many products will remain long after the virus has passed.
Restaurants and craft breweries in particular may have discovered another revenue opportunity for their businesses. E-commerce will benefit and become more the norm, putting increased pressure on bricks and mortar retailers.
The enhanced use of technology to conduct business and maintain social connection will likely lead to less need for business travel with the rise of interactive communication tools like Zoom and Microsoft Meetings becoming more widespread.
There are going to be many causalities as a result of this pandemic, including many personal and business bankruptcies.
It will result in many new business opportunities as well and new business learnings that will improve the effectiveness and profitability of those companies that survive.
The travel industry will take a very long time to recover. International travel will only be a fraction of what it was before the pandemic.
The tourism industry in P.E.I. will be hard hit for the current year, which means that accommodations, food and beverage businesses will see significant drops in demand as well. Shopping locally and staycations will increase in popularity, which will help.
It’s hard to predict how quickly the Island’s economy will take to recover but it will likely be longer than anyone expects. Tax revenues will be down and debt and deficits will be the order of the day. The same is true for most municipalities across the province.
The lessons learned will hopefully prepare us better for the next pandemic — and there will be a next one. Preparation will include having significant stockpiles of medical supplies, secure domestic sources of critical supplies and clear protocols to be enacted much sooner related to travel bans and public isolation.
The definition of an essential worker, usually limited to healthcare workers and first responders, will be forever changed. Transit workers, truckers, long-term care providers, grocery store workers and many others ensuring security of food supply will now be viewed as essential.
Long-term care organizations will be under significant scrutiny going follow to ensure the appropriate level of staffing and compensation for staff and the health-care protocols will need to be strengthened. The push for a minimum wage of $15 per hour will continue to grow.
We should all be grateful for the leadership of all levels of government during this crisis to minimize the impact of COVID-19.
Without the united front, the results would have been much worse and deadlier.
Is it possible that one of the outcomes of this crisis is a greater level of respect for government, politicians and political leaders?
Is it possible that there will be an improved level of cooperation between the various levels of government?
We can only hope.