Region’s cities growing faster than rural areas
Over the past decade, about 4,000 people moved to Atlantic Canada’s six largest cities from other communities in the region each year, says the Atlantic Provinces Economic Council.
More rural areas lost people to other provinces, about 2,000 per year between 2010 and 2015. However, since oil prices fell in 2015, this trend has reversed, with rural communities gaining about 1,500 people per year from other provinces.
The economic think-tank asks: “What will the future hold?”
Atlantic Canada’s top six centres — Halifax, Charlottetown, St. John’s, Fredericton, Moncton and Saint John — have seen their population grow by 21 per cent over the last two decades, while the population in the rest of the region declined by seven per cent, according to APEC.
It expects diverging population and economic dynamics to continue, according to the third report in APEC’s Looking Ahead series, which assesses Atlantic Canada’s demographic and economic future, with the goal of prompting discussion on how the region can react.
APEC senior policy analyst Fred Bergman said in an interview Thursday that it was somewhat surprising to project that the number of households in the top six cities will increase by 25 per cent over the next two decades, while the number of households everywhere else in the region is expected to decline by 10 per cent.
Twenty years ago, 40 per cent of the population in Atlantic Canada lived in cities. Today that number is 47 per cent and by 2030, APEC is projecting that more than half the population in Atlantic Canada will live in these cities.
Residential construction will be strongest in urban centres, according to the APEC report, and it expects the number of households in the six cities will increase by 25 per cent over the next two decades, with immigration a key driver of population growth.
The cities currently contribute more than 55 per cent of regional gross domestic product.
“We expect urban centres will remain the primary drivers of economic growth,” said Bergman.
Over the next two decades, real GDP growth in the six cities will average 1.7 per cent annually, compared to 0.4 per cent in the rest of the region.
People living in rural areas account for 53 per cent of the total population in Atlantic Canada. However, rural areas account for 62 per cent of the region’s senior population.
Twenty years from now, APEC predicts that one in three people living outside the top six cities in Atlantic Canada will be 65 or older.
Rural employers will be particularly challenged; there are only six young people ready to enter the labour force for every 10 retirees in rural Atlantic Canada.
“Looking ahead, the working-age population will shrink substantially, even with immigration to rural communities,” said Bergman.
Based on the APEC study, rural regions will need to attract and retain between 4,500 and 7,000 immigrants each year to support their economic growth. Immigration to rural Atlantic Canada averaged 3,000 annually from 2015 to 2019.
APEC expects the urbanrural population trend to continue. However, a greater number of people working remotely post-COVID-19 could lead to more people moving back to the Atlantic region from larger centres across Canada.
If there is no net interprovincial migration out of the more rural regions, APEC projects they will need an average of 4,500 immigrants a year to support their economic growth.
If net out-migration to other provinces returns to historic levels, rural communities will need to retain about 7,000 immigrants each year.
APEC is projecting the top cities will need to retain 8,000 to 10,000 immigrants per year, depending on trends in migration to other provinces.
If that happens, it has the potential to benefit both urban and rural areas in the region.