National childcare system may require provincial contributions

OTTAWA — A report that tries to estimate the cost of the universal child-care program envisioned in the federal budget warns that it may cost billions of dollars more than expected to get a top-notch system, with provinces either having to pick up the tab or have an underfunded system.

The report was set to be released Thursday by Cardus, a public policy think-tank focused on education, religious freedom and other social issues. Cardus is opposed to the federal government’s proposed national daycare, arguing the government should instead help families choose their own child-care solutions.

Cardus estimates national daycare could cost in the range of $17 billion to $36.3 billion annually by 2026, depending how the program is established.

The low-cost model would create a system similar to Quebec’s, which Cardus argues Canada shouldn’t want to emulate, given its poor access to high-quality spaces and high ratio of children per staff. For the type of system that universal childcare proponents generally call for, the report estimates it would require the high-cost model and leave a $23.3-billion gap after federal funding and parent fees are considered.

“Our model calculates the provincial share of daycare funding as the difference between the federal and parent contribution and our cost estimates,” the report says. “The federal government promises a 50⁄50 costsharing with the provinces, but this sharing is not guaranteed over time. How the provinces will handle funding shortfalls is unknown. Thus, the risk of an uneven distribution of care, or care of mediocre or poor quality, is a significant possibility.”