Money a factor in 2015 election results, but no guarantee of success

Money can’t buy votes. Or so it would seem, according to campaign financial reports filed with Elections Canada by those seeking a House of Commons seat in last fall’s federal election.

More often than not, the biggest spenders did not win on Oct. 19, an analysis by The Canadian Press indicates.

And while spending big bucks didn’t necessarily guarantee victory, not spending enough to at least stay competitive with rival candidates was an almost certain path to defeat, the analysis shows.

Of the top 100 spenders in the election, 47 failed in their election bids, with 12 of those losing to a competitor who also cracked the top 100.

The results among the top 50 spenders were even worse, with about three-fifths of them — 31 candidates in all — running unsuccessfully. Of those, six lost to another candidate in the top 50.

The analysis is based on expenses reported by candidates that counted as part of their legal spending limits. It did not include personal and other expenses — such as gas and mileage for a personal vehicle, child care or thank-you receptions for volunteers — which must be reported to Elections Canada but don’t count against the cap.

The analysis may help explain why the marathon 11-week campaign came down to a battle between the better-resourced Liberals and Conservatives, with the NDP and Greens squeezed out.

On average, Tory candidates spent $90,665, outpacing the average $71,660 spent by Liberals. The average New Democrat candidate spent just $54,404 while the average Green spent a measly $12,642.

University of Manitoba political scientist Royce Koop said there’s no doubt money can help a candidate win, particularly in a close-fought riding. NDP MP Kennedy Stewart, for instance, spent almost $180,600 on his campaign in Burnaby South, while his Liberal opponent, Adam Pankratz, spent $33,902. Pankratz lost by just one percentage point, a result Koop suggests might have been different had the Liberal been more competitive financially.

“Most Canadians vote with the party in mind, so local spending and local volunteers are going to have a much more substantial influence in closer races,” said Koop, who studied the spending habits of local campaigns in the last election.

“If you run a good campaign, well-funded campaign, wellstaffed, you’re going to be able to get just ahead of your opponent and it turns out Canadian elections are getting more competitive. We’re seeing more of these competitive races, so the importance of local campaigns and local spending and local campaign workers has become more important.”

All candidates were required to file their financial reports by Feb. 19, but many were granted an extension. Some 200 have yet to file.