Why we should care about the Brexit threat

Tomorrow citizens of the United Kingdom will vote in a historic referendum on whether the country should stay in the European Union or leave to go it alone.

It may seem like a world away, like their business, not ours, like it is too removed to have meaningful impact on our daily lives. In some ways, perhaps. In many others, some significant, this is an important decision for the rest of the world, including Canada.

Canada is much more than a neutral observer here. Britain is our third largest trading partner after the U.S. and China. U.K. is our second-largest export market. Not only that but we share a common heritage in many respects, not to mention the monarchy.

So yes, we should care deeply about the outcome of this week’s vote, especially if it is to leave. Even though departure will take years to negotiate, the immediate ramifications will be significant. Expect world markets to react very badly. Expect investors to flee U.K. currency. Expect foreign investors to be anxious, at least. Expect trade to suffer, at least in the short term, because much of that trade appeal is linked to the U.K.’s access to other key European markets.

Expect, too, a Leave decision to reignite separation discussions in other regions. Scotland, for sure. Even in Canada sovereigntists will look for new ammunition from events in the U.K.

A vote to leave will also spell serious trouble for the stability of the remains of the EU. And it will spark justifiable fears about a new wave of isolationist thinking and politics — already riding high thanks to the ramblings of Donald Trump.

Most experts are predicting even more dire economic and social consequences for U.K. citizens, some to be felt immediately, others more of a medium- and longterm threat. But in spite of all the dire warnings, British citizens could easily vote to leave. Why? Why risk that if even half of the dire predictions are valid?

Because many U.K. citizens feel their independence and future prosperity is at stake. They, like many around the world these days, don’t buy the warnings because they tend to disbelieve conventional wisdom. That same ornery cynicism has given America Trump.

Brits have many good reasons to be dissatisfied with their current lot. The EU administration sits cloistered in Brussels, a world removed from harsh economic and social realities citizens are grappling with. They perceive their jobs are threatened by migration. They feel the burden of overregulation. They perceive that economic centralization is making their country more dependent and less dynamic.

Right now polls are predicting the Stay side will win tomorrow. We should hope that’s the case. But unless U.K. policy-makers can address the real and perceived problems causing public unrest, they can expect this challenge, or a more serious one, to be mounted again.