U.S. allies have every reason to fear Trump

Viewpoint: Toronto Star Twenty-four per cent.

That, according to an authoritative estimate by election experts at the New York Times, is Donald Trump’s chance of beating Hillary Clinton and winning the American presidency in November.

It makes Clinton the strong favourite. But not the overwhelming favourite. As Josh Katz of the Times noted in explaining the intricate calculations that went into the prediction: “Mrs. Clinton’s chance of losing is about the same probability that an NBA player will miss a free throw.”

In other words, it could well happen. It’s a definite possibility. Sure, it’s just one estimate at one moment in time, a best-guess based on the available data. But given the stakes involved in a Trump presidency, it’s an appalling prospect.

The conventional wisdom was that Trump would use the Republican convention to “pivot” from primary mode to the general election. That he would try to broaden his message from his angry white male base to other voters who might be tempted to his side.

His “I Alone” speech (as in, “I alone can fix it”) closing the convention put paid to that. Once again, the conventional wisdom was flat wrong. Trump has evidently decided that enough voters will respond to his dark, dystopian vision of America to carry him all the way to the White House.

The fact that he has a solid chance of making it means the world must take him very seriously. For Canadians, that includes listening carefully as he continues to attack the institutions most fundamental to our military and economic security.

Last week, he did just that as he tore into both NAFTA, the two-decade-old North American trade deal, and NATO, the bedrock of western stability since the Second World War. He’s taking protectionism and isolationism to a new level.