Here’s why Christianity must change or die New study finds liberal theology leads to decline in church attendance
It was almost 20 years ago that John Shelby Spong, a U.S. bishop in the Episcopalian (Anglican) Church, published his book “Why Christianity Must Change or Die.” This was just one of many books written by Spong, in which he argued enthusiastically for people of Christian faith to abandon their literal interpretation of the Bible and their belief in supernatural phenomenon. Advocating the position he does makes him a theological liberal.
Spong’s books are typically bestsellers, but they’re purchased almost exclusively by clergy and congregants in mainline Protestant churches. In Canada, those churches make up the Anglican, Lutheran, Presbyterian, and United denominations.
Spong’s ideas aren’t new, nor is their appeal among the mainline. Even before he came along, dating back to the early 1900s, mainline Protestant denominations in Canada, U.S., and U.K. had a soft spot for liberal theology. It’s been taught for decades in mainline seminaries and preached from many mainline pulpits. Its enduring attraction is it gives intellectual credibility to religious ideas that on the surface may seem far-fetched to modern audiences.
But clergy and congregants of mainline Protestant churches who have been reading the news over the past week may now have mixed feelings about the appeal of liberal theology.
The media have been reporting on a study of mainline Protestant churches that my colleagues and I conducted. Though they were difficult to track down, we found some growing mainline congregations and compared them to a sample of declining. After statistically analyzing the survey responses of over 2,200 congregants and the clergy who serve them, we came to a startling discovery: conservative Protestant theology is a significant predictor of church growth, while liberal theology leads to decline.
In terms of adherence to conservative theological beliefs, the pastors of the growing mainline churches were the most conservative theologically, followed by the growing church attendees, followed by the declining church attendees, and finally the declining church pastors.
Our study isn’t unique for identifying most mainline churches are dying — almost everyone knows that. It’s unique because it solved the mystery of why. As important, our research stands out because past studies suggest theology and church growth are not linked. We’ve proven that they are.
Despite the fact that the findings of our research have been published in top Canadian and international social scientific journals, my colleagues and I have heard from naysayers who insist that our conclusions are somehow faulty. Interestingly, some have referenced the ideas of Spong noting that, according to him and others of his ilk, it’s liberal theology that is supposed to lead to growth, not its opposite.
I can’t broach all their claims, but two ideas have been mentioned repeatedly by those uneasy with our conclusions, so I’ll discuss them briefly.
Several critics have argued that liberal churches do grow and they know this because they’ve seen it. This reasoning is called anecdotal fallacy; isolated examples are used to dismiss strong statistical evidence. Even outside our study, when growing churches have been identified, they have been almost exclusively conservative.
The other common assertion of our critics is that some factor besides theology is the real cause of growth. For example, we’ve been told that churches featuring clergy with strong convictions will grow regardless of doctrinal leanings. But we would point out that different convictions, even those equally strong, produce different outcomes. For example, all the growing church clergy in our study, because of their theological outlook, held the conviction that it was “very important to encourage non-Christians to become Christians.”
Conversely, half the clergy at the declining churches held the opposite conviction. Their theological outlook led them to believe it was not desirable to convert non-Christians. Comparing the two convictions, which do you think is more likely to generate church growth?
We realize our study has uncovered some uncomfortable facts. However, as researchers our obligation is to present what the data reveal, even when it goes against popular perception or ruffles sensibilities. And while our findings contradict what theological liberals like Spong claim will make a church grow, when it comes to mainline Protestant churches our results support Spong’s contention that “Christianity must change or die.” He just gets the direction of the change wrong.
Dr. David Millard Haskell, Wilfrid Laurier University, is author along with Drs. Kevin Flatt and Stephanie Burgoyne of “Theology Matters: Comparing the Traits of Growing and Declining Mainline Protestant Church Attendees and Clergy,” in the Review of Religious Research, Volume 58, Issue 4 (December 2016).