Tweets a dangerous way to deal with China

This first appeared in the Washington Post

Fully seven weeks before he is due to take office, president-elect Donald Trump launched what looked like an offensive against China beginning last week. First came a precedent-breaking phone call with the president of Taiwan; then came a series of tweets assailing China’s trade and currency policies and its buildup in the South China Sea. Trump’s rhetoric was not new, and his apparent strategy of pushback against the regime of Xi Jinping has some merit.

What’s worrying is the evident lack of preparation and diplomatic care in the initiative, as well as the unintended consequences it may produce.

The reality of these issues is far more complex than Trump’s tweets allow. But more importantly, they carried a tone of aggressive challenge. Do they mean Trump will plunge the United States into a trade war with China? He must realize that such a confrontation could prove counterproductive and a serious drag on his hopes to boost economic growth at home. Is he planning steps against China’s “massive military complex in the middle of the South China Sea”? If not, his rhetoric may look hollow in a few months.

Aggravating China also could have a downside when Trump needs to ask Beijing for help with its errant client state, North Korea. Kim Jong Un’s accelerating nuclear weapons and missile programs will be near the top of Trump’s problems upon taking office. China is an essential player in restraining North Korea. This is just one example of the costs and benefits that Trump should weigh — preferably with experienced advisers — before letting fly on Twitter.