Majority of polled residents oppose LRT

Survey results come on eve of crucial vote

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MAJORITY of Hamiltonians polled oppose the $1-billion LRT project, according to the just-released results of a city-wide survey.

Forty-eight per cent of respondents say they disapprove of the controversial project while 40 per cent are in favour of it.

The remaining 12 per cent are undecided.

That means among decided respondents, 55 per cent are against the project while 45 per cent approve.

The poll, funded by nine city councillors, lands on the eve of Wednesday’s crucial council meeting, which could decide whether to move ahead with the provincially funded project.

The survey suggests that 63 per cent — almost two-thirds of Hamiltonians — believe the city should hold a referendum before making a final decision.

Thirty-two per cent of those polled say a referendum should not be held while another six per cent are unsure.

The survey also found that overall a strong majority of respondents — 82 per cent — are familiar with the plan to

55% of decided respondents oppose LRT, 45% approve

build a light rail system from McMaster University to the Queenston Traffic Circle.

Asked to rate their familiarity with the project, 46 per cent said they are very familiar, 36 per cent say they are somewhat familiar, 13 per cent are not very familiar, and 4 per cent say are not at all familiar. A small percentage — 1 per cent — is unsure about their level of familiarity.

The poll, which reached 3,324 residents, was conducted by Access Research on behalf of Forum Research.

The results have a margin of error of 1.7 per cent 19 times out of 20.

About two-thirds of those polled were age 55 and older. Strongest support was in the 34-44 age range, with 47 per cent in favour of LRT and 38 per cent against. Strongest opposition was in the age 65 and over category, with 54 per cent against and 32 per cent in favour.

Lorne Bozinoff, president and CEO of Forum Research, declined to comment on the poll. He did, however, note the sampling size is “huge” for a municipal survey, adding most national surveys the company does sample between 800 and 1,000 people.

Mayor Fred Eisenberger, no fan of the poll from the get-go, nonetheless thinks the results “are very positive” given the amount of “misinformation out there.”

“I’m delighted with the level of support and I’m not surprised,” said Eisenberger, adding it shows claims of “overwhelming” opposition are wrong.

Coun. Sam Merulla, the only proLRT councillor to help fund the poll, says the results show the pro-camp is “within striking distance” of majority support.

Merulla argues the results would have been more favourable if he’d been able to include questions about awareness levels of infrastructure replacement along the 11-kilometre route and connections to the city’s planned rapid bus transit lines.

But Coun. Terry Whitehead, who spearheaded the survey, calls that “spin.”

“If anything, this should be a wake-up call for pro-LRT people,” he said. “If I were going into an election campaign against LRT, these are great numbers.”

Among other things, Whitehead says the survey suggests the majority of Hamiltonians who are very familiar with the project disapprove of it, as well as the majority of people in every area of the city, including the lower city and downtown.

Of 1,008 respondents in the latter, 47 per cent were against LRT, 43 per cent were in favour, and 10 per cent were undecided. Whitehead says that’s a “surprise” given that the downtown is a “beehive” of LRT information and activity.

Whitehead, who’ll only support the project if the route runs from Mac to Eastgate Square as previously proposed, admits he thought the poll would show a higher percentage of opposition but notes the results, significantly, show a lack of strong support across the entire community.

Interestingly, the Hamilton survey mirrors a 2011 Ipsos Reid poll gauging support for LRT in Waterloo Region. That poll also found 48 per cent of respondents didn’t support the light rail plan, while 40 per cent did. In the end, it didn’t matter. The Waterloo project is now about a year away from going operational.

Naturally, people will carve up the Hamilton poll every which way. Some will trumpet it, some dismiss it. Whether it impacts Wednesday’s big vote on the environmental assessment is the pivotal question.

“I’m delighted with the level of support and I’m not surprised.” MAYOR FRED EISENBERGER