TIME TO PANIC, JAYS FANS? OH, YES.
Hey, it’s just two weeks in, but try telling that to Blue Jays fans
Two weeks into a baseball season, with roughly one-thirteenth of your schedule played, is typically no time to panic. The 1991 Minnesota Twins, 2002 Anaheim Angels and ’11 St. Louis Cardinals, to name a few prominent examples, were 4-9, 4-8 and 5-7 at the two-week marks in their respective seasons, and all went on to win the World Series.
But two weeks — with top starting pitchers through their third starts and everyday players having had 50 or so plate appearances — is enough time to discern trends, identify problem areas and, in some cases, begin to acknowledge that teams might not be what we expected.
Two weeks into this season, four of the 10 teams that made the post-season just 6½ months ago — including the American League pennant winners — find themselves under .500, as do the St. Louis Cardinals, who finished just a game out of the wild card in 2016. All five had designs on the playoffs this fall. (And this doesn’t even include the defending champion Chicago Cubs, who are 6-6 two weeks in.)
Of particular note to St. Louis and Toronto: In the wild-card era, which began in 1995, 53 teams have started the season 3-9 or worse after 12 games, and only three (2000 Giants, ’01 A’s and ’07 Phillies) eventually reached the post-season, with all three losing their first series.
Here is a look at those five slow-starting championship aspirants and what level of panic, on a scale of 1 to 10, each should be feeling.
CLEVELAND INDIANS
Last year: 94-67, first place in AL Central, lost in World Series
This year: 5-7, fifth place The Indians are 2-7 since sweeping their season-opening series at Texas. (They also drew just 17,739 to Progressive Field for their game Sunday against division rival Detroit, but that’s a story for another time.)
The Indians’ biggest problem thus far is the slow starts of some veteran hitters with solid track records — including Edwin Encarnacion (.622 OPS so far) and Carlos Santana (.672) — which is the best problem to have, since bats such as those tend to come around eventually. In addition, two-time all-star second baseman Jason Kipnis, their regular No. 2 hitter, is on a rehabilitation assignment after starting the year on the disabled list, and should be back within a matter of days.
Panic level: 1 SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
Last year: 87-75, second place in NL West, lost in Division Series
This year: 5-9, fifth place The Giants had an awful week, losing catcher Buster Posey (concussion) and outfielder Jarrett Parker (broken collarbone) to injuries, helping shortstop Brandon Crawford grieve the death of his sister-in-law and, almost inconsequentially, going 3-4 at home against Arizona and Colorado. But, while Parker will be out for a while, Posey, obviously the more important piece, could return as soon as Tuesday. More importantly, the unit that proved to be the Giants’ undoing in 2016 — the bullpen — has (after an awful start) proven to be a strength. In the just-concluded Rockies series, Giants relievers combined to pitch 10 1/3 innings without allowing an earned run or an inherited runner to score. Setup man Hunter Strickland, in particular, looks like a new pitcher.
Meantime, Madison Bumgarner, Jeff Samardzija and Matt Moore are a combined 1-7. There’s a good chance that won’t continue.
Panic level: 2 TEXAS RANGERS
Last year: 95-67, first place in AL West, lost in Division Series
This year: 4-8, fifth place The culprit here is easy to identify: a leaky bullpen that has converted just one save out of six total chances — already blowing three leads of at least four runs — while pitching to a 6.27 ERA and giving up seven homers in just 37 1/3 innings. Largely as a result, the Rangers are 0-8 in games in which they score fewer than eight runs. They appear prepared to yank Sam Dyson out of the closer’s job, and give it to Matt Bush, the flame-out shortstop prospect turned lights-out setup man. But that, of course, only serves to weaken the eighth inning while strengthening the ninth.
Panic level: 4 ST. LOUIS CARDINALS Last year: 86-76, second place in NL Central
This year: 3-9, fifth place The Cardinals are off to their worst start since 1988, following a just-completed 1-5 road trip to Washington and the Bronx, and there are problems everywhere. In three starts, Adam Wainwright still hasn’t recorded an out in the sixth inning. New centre-fielder Dexter Fowler (.143/.222/ .163) has been atrocious at the plate. The defence, a primary focus of the Cardinals’ off-season, committed six errors, several of them costly, on their road trip. And the bullpen has a 7.34 ERA while allowing opposing hitters to bat .295/.395/.504 off them.
The Cardinals’ best reason for hope is that the Cubs have not yet run away with the division — or even shown signs of doing so. But hoping for that to continue is not a very smart bet.
Panic level: 5 TORONTO BLUE JAYS
Last year: 89-73, second place in AL East, lost in ALCS
This year: 2-10, fifth place The Blue Jays are a bona-fide disaster, with the worst record in baseball and the worst 12-game start in franchise history. Two starting pitchers ( J.A. Happ and Aaron Sanchez) went on the disabled list over the weekend, slugger Josh Donaldson is sidelined indefinitely with a strained calf and rival executives are already salivating over the talented pieces that could become available if (when?) the Blue Jays decide to punt on 2017 and start trading away veterans such as Francisco Liriano, Jose Bautista and Troy Tulowitzki.
The Jays thought they could absorb the free-agency losses of slugger Edwin Encarnacion and reliever Brett Cecil, among others, this winter, but so far, their offence looks old and sluggish, scoring nearly two runs per game fewer than they did in 2016. Their pitching staff, which led the league in ERA in ’16, has dropped to 12th in ’17. Panic level: 8