What will keep Andreychuk out this year?
For the past eight years around this time, the folks who hold the keys to hockey’s hall of fame gather in Toronto and find new and imaginative ways to overlook the obvious. So it’s altogether reasonable to expect the same result Monday afternoon when they meet again to elect the class of 2017.
Chances are Dave Andreychuk won’t get the call.
There’s no sense pretending otherwise anymore. Even in a year when there’s only one guaranteed inductee — Teemu Selanne — it would be unwise to build expectations for the big Hamiltonian because every year these just get cruelly and inexplicably shot down.
Is that wrong? Of course it’s wrong. It’s been wrong all along. It’ll remain wrong if he’s bypassed again this year.
The guy has 640 NHL goals. Only 13 men in hockey history have ever scored more, and all of them are either in the hall or will be. Selanne is one of those. He’ll be inducted this year. Jaromir Jagr is another. He’s a shoo-in whenever he decides to retire, likely 80 or 90 years from now.
One spot behind Andreychuk on the goals list is Jarome Iginla. He’s played 85 fewer games and has 15 fewer goals (and 23 fewer assists). Meaning by the end of next year his numbers could be essentially identical. The Hockey News says he’s “a no-brainer” for the Hall. Bleacher Report calls him a “first-ballot lock.”
Marian Hossa has played 300 fewer games, but has 115 fewer goals. Extrapolate his numbers over the same period and they’re about the same as Andreychuk’s. The Hockey News says he’s Hall worthy. Bleacher Report calls him a sure first-ballot entry, as well. Mike Modano finished 79 goals behind, while playing just 140 fewer games. He’s already in.
So why would they be worthy and he isn’t? As has been pointed out here and many other places, the primary knock against Andreychuk is that he was really good for a really long time rather than being great for a brief, shining moment.
But wait a second. All these guys did the same. And Daniel Alfredsson is said to be likely to get in this year or soon after.
Because — wait for it — he was really good for a long time. No, he wasn’t good for as long and no, he never won a Stanley Cup. On top of that, Andreychuk has 196 more goals, had two 50-goal seasons compared to Alfredsson’s zero. As a bonus, he holds the NHL record for power-play goals. But the longtime Senator is still favoured to get in.
OK, some will say, but Andreychuk collected his tallies at a time when goals were easier to come by. That’s true, but hockeyreference.com has adjusted goal-scoring for eras and based on those new numbers he still outscores Alfredsson 605 to 492.
Alfredsson is lauded for his two-way play. Which is exactly what Andreychuk was praised for in the final seasons of his career, when he redefined himself as a defensive forward. Alfredsson is credited with being a great leader. Andreychuk, meanwhile, has a statue of himself holding the Stanley Cup outside his old arena, which does a fair job vouching for his own leadership abilities.
We can go on and on. This isn’t to dump on Alfredsson. He was a super player. It simply illustrates how ludicrous any argument would be that one of these men is a surefire hall of famer and one isn’t. If Alfredsson is worthy — he is — so is Andreychuk. Even if the former Sen doesn’t get the nod this time, Andreychuk still should.
Still, chances are that when the class is announced Monday afternoon, he won’t be part of it. So why not? If he has the numbers (check), the team success (check), the leadership (check), the big seasons (check) and been a good citizen (check), what’s the real reason he’s been on the outs?
The answer may be entirely superficial. The one thing he never had was the sizzle. He was never a great skater. He never went end-to-end to score dazzling goals. He was rarely on the highlight reels. Even though hockey guys will use the old line all day long that “it’s not how, it’s how many,” it’s clear they don’t really believe their own philosophy. It’s very much about the how.
Modano was flashier. Iginla was flashier. Alfredsson was arguably flashier. Andreychuk was simply better at putting the puck in the net than any of them. Which should really count for more than any style points. This isn’t figure skating or gymnastics.
In the end, though, that understated form may well be his undoing again. It was wrong before and it would still be wrong.
Let’s hope the voters finally figure that out.