Will Andrea Horwath consider a run for the mayor’s seat?
Much depends on June election results
Will Andrea Horwath run for mayor of Hamilton if things go badly for the Ontario NDP leader in the June provincial election?
There’s been enough chatter at city hall and other local political circles to warrant raising the question.
Asked directly, Horwath says she’s “focused 100 per cent on becoming premier of Ontario.”
“I’m in to win it this time,” Horwath, party leader since 2009, said in a recent interview. “That’s where my head is and that’s where I have to stay.”
But the question of a mayoral bid hardly comes out of left field for the Hamilton Centre MPP and former city councillor.
According to Horwath, she is approached and urged to run for mayor “almost every time” she’s in her hometown.
“I’m not going to say never,” she says.
“I’m not going to say never, but certainly at this point in time I’m definitely focused on the provincial campaign.”
As well she might be.
With the Liberals apparently on
the run after nearly 15 years in office and the Progressive Conservatives trying to find their feet under new leader Doug Ford, the third place New Democrats could very well be in the catbird seat.
If the Kathleen Wynne Liberals continue to slide and Ford fails to come across as a reasonable alternative, Horwath could find herself, if not premier, once again holding the balance of power in a PC or Liberal minority government, as the NDP did after the 2011 provincial election.
On the other hand, if the opinion polls prove accurate and Ford doesn’t self destruct, the Tories could win a majority, the Liberals could be reduced to third party status, and the New Democrats could become the official opposition.
But what happens if things go haywire?
What if the New Democrats fail to improve their seat count, as happened in the 2014 election when Horwath tried to shift the social democratic party closer to the businessfriendly centre?
This will be Horwath’s third election campaign as leader. So far she’s batting 500, gaining seats in 2011, holding steady in 2014.
How much longer will the party want to stick with her absent a significant breakthrough?
Alternatively, how much longer will Horwath want to pour heart, soul and shoe leather into wheel-spinning results.
I suspect I’m not the only political observer who figures Horwath will run for mayor at some point in her political career.
But this year’s municipal election is on Oct. 22, a mere 137 days after the June 7 provincial election.
Even if Horwath had all the will in the world, does that realistically give her enough time to build a campaign team and war chest to take on incumbent mayor Fred Eisenberger, who long since announced he’s seeking re-election?
To a large extent, that would depend on not only how many supporters are interested in seeing Horwath run but how her chances of winning are rated.
Horwath, 55, would certainly bring a lot of strengths to the contest, not the least of which is her popularity.
Regardless of where the NDP stand in the polls, her personal approval ratings have consistently topped those of the other party leaders.
She’s generally seen as sharp, reasonable, and compassionate.
The fact that she knows Hamilton politics from the ground up is also a big plus.
Horwath was councillor for downtown’s Ward 2 from 1997 to 2004, when she stepped aside to run in the byelection held to replace the late Dominic Agostino.
But there are other questions that would play into the decision beyond what level of support she could command in a race against Eisenberger.
How damaged would her political reputation be coming out of the provincial election? If the results were so poor that she was ready to move on, how would that play with civic voters?
And how exhausted would she be? After a full-blooded provincial campaign, would Horwath have the mental and physical energy to thrown herself into another tough battle so soon or would she need time to lick her wounds?
The answers to these questions are completely unpredictable right now. What is clear, however, is Horwath isn’t saying “never.”