Is there an appetite for a coalition?
History tells us a progressive coalition might be more viable than leaders admit
some people, it’s never too early to openly discuss a coalition government.
Recently, there has been some talk about a possible Liberal-NDP coalition, assuming the Progressive Conservatives win the June 7 general election short of a majority of legislative seats.
Amid this coalition speculation, Liberal leader Kathleen Wynne suggested it is not yet time to consider the idea, while NDP leader Andrea Horwath dismissed entirely a coalition with the Liberals. Despite this public pushback, both have good reason to give the idea serious thought. Their concern, perhaps, is the optics of openly discussing a coalition.
The concern might make sense if Ontario voters lack an appetite for a coalition. Some may consider coalition governments as “un-Canadian.” Recall the fiasco around the federal coalition former Liberal leader Stéphane Dion tried to arrange with the NDP and Bloc Québécois in 2008.
But data suggest coalitions are not that unappetizing to voters. In fact, such arrangements can enjoy considerable support.
To demonstrate, let’s look back a few years. In the 2014 provincial election, Ipsos conducted an election day survey of more than 8,000 respondents who were asked about coalitions. All two-party combinations were queried. While the 2014 campaign was different than the current campaign, a breakdown of results is very informative. More than 90 per cent of Liberal voters in 2014 expressed support for a Liberal-led coalition with the NDP. This arrangement was even supported by 71 per cent of NDP voters. Not much changes when tables are turned. The option of an NDP-led coalition with the Liberals was supported by 83 per cent of NDPers and 59 per cent of Liberals. So those who voted Liberal or NDP in 2014 showed majority support for a coalition government led by any of the two parties.
Liberals and NDPers were also like-minded in opposing a possible
coalition with the Progressive Conservatives. Between 68 per cent and 85 per cent of Liberals and more than 90 per cent of NDPers opposed their party forming a coalition with the PCs.
PC voters also showed the same love — or lack thereof — toward the other two parties. Between 55 per cent and 75 per cent opposed a coalition with the Liberals. More than two-thirds also opposed a coalition with an NDP-led government. Curiously though, 74 per cent of PC voters supported a PC-led coalition with the NDP.
Overall, data confirms that the Liberals and NDP share common ground in terms of seeing each other as viable partners. As Ipsos’s Darrell Bricker pointed out recently, conservative voters in Ontario are outnumFor
bered by progressives, but while conservatives rally around one party, progressives divide themselves between the other two. It is not terribly surprising to see many NDPers and Liberals looking to each other as possible strategic partners. What’s very interesting about the 2014 results is the degree of support for such a partnership.
Also, it is important to note that the data presented here is a survey of voters, not of candidates or party executives. While coalitions can be arranged through negotiations among high-ranking party officials, it is not necessarily true that such negotiations are deemed illegitimate by voters. The parliamentary system requires a majority of elected members to have confidence in the government, whether that government is supported by one party or a combination. But institutional matters aside, the data suggests that a Liberal-NDP coalition can enjoy great public support.
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The data suggests that a Liberal-NDP coalition can enjoy great public support.