PCs risked landslide win by picking Ford

Party would probably not be sniping at NDP if it had chosen Christine Elliott

People have been thinking it for weeks so let’s just spit it out.

If the Tories had chosen Christine Elliott as their leader instead of Doug Ford, right now they’d probably be waltzing to a landslide victory on June 7.

As it is, according to the polls, they’re in a nail-biting neck-andneck battle with the propulsive NDP to determine which party will form the next government.

That’s in stark contrast to the lofty place the Tories were sitting prior to Ford assuming leadership of the party on March 10 after edging out Elliott on the third ballot.

On March 7, the CBC poll tracker showed the PCs with a commanding lead of 45.3 per cent support compared to 26.2 per cent for the Liberals and 22.3 per cent for the New Democrats. This despite all the travails the party went through after sexual misconduct allegations drove former leader Patrick Brown from office. What happened?

Ford happened.

The man is a polarizing figure based as much on his personality as his inextricable links to his wildly controversial younger brother Rob, the late former mayor of Toronto.

Big, bluff and blustery, Ford quite simply introduced a perceived risk factor in voting for the PCs that wouldn’t have been there with the safe and steady Elliott.

The apparent decline in support for the PCs didn’t take place overnight. It happened gradually as the campaign unfolded and the unschooled Ford was increasingly exposed to public and media scrutiny, not to forget cheap but politically damaging comparisons with U.S. president Donald Trump.

Support can slide in any election campaign for any number of reasons, of course. There are plenty at play in this one.

After 15 years in power, the bottom fell out of the Liberals, leaving many left-leaning voters looking for a safe harbour to dock their votes. NDP leader Andrea Horwath’s personal strengths — effortless empathy, quick-thinking, unfeigned idealism — has helped fuel her party’s surge. The lack of a costed PC platform raised suspicions in some quarters about Ford’s real intentions.

Still, the fact remains Ford has been swimming against the current since the very beginning.

As a Queen’s Park outsider, he was outclassed by the experienced Horwath and Liberal leader Kathleen Wynne in the televised debates. And the aroma if not the details of alleged political improprieties during his time as a Toronto city councillor while his brother was mayor still stick to him.

Ford has some genuine strengths. A successful businessperson, he’s clearly not stupid or as lightweight as some critics portray him. His plainspokenness and common touch have given him a strong support base.

But his raw authenticity has largely been reined in on the campaign trail and replaced, presumably by nervous party handlers, with scripted lines he seldom deviates from.

By contrast, if Elliott had been in the saddle she would have brought greater experience and confidence to the role of campaigning leader, not to mention the politically correct appeal of being a smart female leader pitted against other smart female leaders.

An MPP for nine years before resigning her seat in 2015, she was a respected deputy party leader, a runner-up to Brown in the 2015 leadership contest and third place finisher in the 2009 race which saw Tim Hudak emerge leader.

Moderate, compassionate and fiscally sharp, Elliott would easily have held her own in the leaders’ debates, capitalizing on the fading fortunes of the Liberals while warding off threats from the NDP.

In short, Elliott would have been a more buttoned-up, trusted and predictable candidate for a change-hungry public to get behind.

That’s not to say the PCs are bound to fail under Ford. The polls suggest he has a very good crack at being premier. There have been bumps but no disasters during the campaign. The party has plenty of bench strength.

It’s just that things would have been so much more safe and sound for the PCs with Elliott rather than Ford at the helm.