The Spectator’s Matthew Van Dongen wades into what awaits lakeshore residents
Regulators are slowing flow out of Lake Ontario to ease swamped cities downstream
Lake Ontario water levels are rising quickly enough to threaten flooding in Hamilton as early as next week — even without a wind storm, government regulators warn.
Water levels are high in the Great Lakes this spring — but particularly near Montreal and along the Ottawa River, where states of emergency due to flooding have been declared in several communities.
Right now, Lake Ontario levels are not high enough to cause flooding in Hamilton without help from north-east winds that occasionally and infamously whip up damaging waves along the shoreline.
But that is about to change thanks to a “perfect storm” of forecasted wet weather and downstream flood crises that have forced regulators to slow the flow of water out of Lake Ontario to protect swamped cities. “We do anticipate (Lake Ontario) flooding issues in the very near future,” said Rob Caldwell, the Canadian secretary of the International Lake Ontario — St. Lawrence River Board.
“Basically, we’re about four inches away from people starting to see flooding even without a wind storm. If the forecasts are right, we could see levels rise to that general flood stage next week.”
Two years ago, record high Lake Ontario levels — almost 76 metres above sea level — swamped streets and basements in the low-lying Hamilton beach strip, swallowed beaches and even pushed surprised fish into the sewers.
The board’s six-month forecast suggests we could get close to that level again if wet weather persists through spring. But the immediate risk comes if Lake Ontario hits 75.37 metres next week as predicted.
At that level, Caldwell said more nearshore dwellers would be expected to report flooding even in calm conditions. “Obviously, if you have sustained winds from the wrong direction, that will exacerbate the damage,” he said.
So far, the city is not getting any lakerelated flooding calls, said water director Andrew Grice. (By comparison, many beach strip homeowners complained of swamped basements in soggy 2017.)
But the city is sending crews to clean storm sewer grates along the strip and other flood-prone areas just in case.
The Hamilton Conservation Authority has issued a “water safety statement” warning of swollen creeks, but has not ramped up to a flood watch or warning.
Watershed planning director Scott Peck said that might change if north-east winds whip up wave-related shoreline threats. “But lately, we’ve been lucky with prevailing westerly winds that do not pose much of a risk for us,” he said.
Caldwell said the amount of spring rain in the Lake Ontario basin will be a “big wild card” in determining the flooding future for the Hamilton area. But local residents can also feel the impact of high water as far away as the Ottawa River because it dumps into the St. Lawrence Seaway near Montreal.
That means for now, federal regulators are using a dam at Cornwall to “slow the tap” out of Lake Ontario to try to curb flooding near Montreal. “We have to try to balance the impacts as fairly as we can,” Caldwell said.