Trump turns to those he has scorned for help on Iran
President calling on European allies to do more in the Middle East despite a lack of goodwill and trust
WASHINGTON — As tensions fester with Iran, U.S. President Donald Trump finds himself turning to the very people and entities he’s spent three years dismissing or alienating; NATO, Western allies and American intelligence agencies.
Trump, who once said that U.S. spy agencies should “go back to school,” is now highlighting the intelligence services’ work that led to the fatal airstrike against Iran’s most powerful general. “There’s some dripping irony, but nobody thinks all of a sudden he loves us,” said Marc Polymeropoulos, a recently retired 26year CIA veteran who held assignments in the Mideast, Europe and Eurasia.
Also, after three years of dismissive comments about NATO and other European allies, Trump says he wants them to help more in the Middle East. He even suggested a new possible name of “NATOME” to add emphasis on the Middle East.
Following his order to kill Iranian Gen. Qassem Soleimani, and the dangerous aftermath of Iran launching missiles at U.S. military installations, Trump said he would like to see more NATO troops in the Middle East because the problems there are international in scope.
His latest entreaty is also the freshest test of whether he can bend other nations and international alliances to his will and convince them to join with him after years of letting many of those relationships wither.
“I think NATO should be expanded and we should include the Middle East, absolutely ... Right now the burden is on us and that’s not fair,” Trump said Thursday.
Trump noted how the U.S. had crushed Islamic State militants and killed ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. “We did Europe a big favour,” he said.
How receptive U.S. allies in Europe will be to working with the Trump administration on Mideast issues remains unclear, especially given how nations like France were dedicated to the Iran nuclear agreement that Trump abandoned.
“Trump has nothing in the bank with the Europeans. There’s no goodwill. There’s no sense of trust — no sense that they can rely on him,” said Derek Chollet, senior adviser for security and defence policy at The German Marshall Fund of the United States. “They are not going to be looking to do Donald Trump a favour.”
Chollet also said Trump has not been specific — at least not publicly — about what he wants Europe to do. Help him negotiate a new nuclear deal with Iran? Sanction or punish Iran? Provide troops in the Middle East?
“There is no evidence that I’m aware of that European leaders are going to sign on to Trump’s agenda,” Chollet said. “If he pulls U.S. forces out of the Middle East, the idea that the Europeans are going to fill the vacuum — there’s no evidence that will happen.”
Ted Galen Carpenter, a defence and foreign policy analyst at the CATO Institute, said Trump’s call for greater NATO involvement is “not a terribly realistic expectation but it is consistent with Trump’s ongoing demand for greater burden sharing by U.S. allies.”
“He seems to have forgotten the European anger over his decision to cancel the Iran nuclear agreement,” Carpenter said. European nations have worked to keep the Iran nuclear deal on life support after Trump pulled the U.S. out. Kenneth Pollack, a former CIA analyst and expert on Middle East politics and military affairs, said he thinks Iran will be careful about ramping up its nuclear program too much, but that the killing of Soleimani has likely changed Tehran’s mindset.
“They thought they didn’t need a nuclear weapon to deter the U.S.,” said Pollack. “I think this has suddenly changed Tehran’s calculus — that Trump is so aggressive and unpredictable and ignorant — that they will look at this and say ‘You know what? We need a nuclear weapon.’ ”