‘We’re over the peak,’ top official says
But pandemic far from over as city records 21st COVID-19 death
The worst is likely behind us, estimates Hamilton’s medical officer of health, as more people have recovered than are currently ill from COVID-19.
“That is our million-dollar question,” said Dr. Elizabeth Richardson. “Are we riding on the peak right at the moment or are we just past it ... My best guess ... is we’re over the peak and coming down the other side.”
However, it doesn’t mean the pandemic is over or that physical distancing can come to an end. The virus is still circulating in the community with tragic results, including the city’s 21st death.
An 82-year-old man who lived in the community died of COVID-19 in hospital on May 3. He is the sixth death in
Hamilton that is not associated with an outbreak.
“It’s certainly a reminder of just how serious this illness can be, especially for people who are older, for people who may have chronic illnesses,” said Richardson. “Unfortunately we have lost another individual in our community to COVID-19.”
At the same time, the number of cases in the city’s ongoing outbreaks continue to rise with new infections recently at St. Peter’s Hospital, Dundurn Place Care Centre and St. Elizabeth Villa.
There are now five patients and five staff infected on the 3 West Palliative Care Unit at St. Peter’s. At Dundurn Place, eight residents and three staff have tested positive at the long-term care home. There is one infected resi
dent and one infected staff member at St. Elizabeth retirement residence.
In addition, Mondelez Canada has had to shut down its candy factory after four workers tested positive.
However, community spread is “definitely stable,” said Richardson which is “really good news.”
“But we’re not down to having very few cases every day.”
Hamilton had four new cases Monday, bringing the total to 451 confirmed and seven more probable.
Provincewide, there were 370 new confirmed cases to bring Ontario to 17,923 infected.
While the province wants to see fewer than 200 new confirmed cases a day before it reopens the economy, Richardson says there is no comparable number for Hamilton.
“There’s not a specific number for me,” she said. “For me, it is more about what does the overall picture look like ... We really wanted to look at how do those numbers breakdown and what was the story that those numbers told. We definitely want to see them on a decline, see them coming down single digits (of new cases each day).”
It means physical distancing will still be in force for the remainder of Ramadan and on Mother’s Day on Sunday.
“This is another one of those weekends ... in terms of important celebrations we have in our community and our families,” said Richardson. “It’s a little bit difficult to approach them in a different way than we would normally want to do. But it is one where we need to continue to follow the advice around physical distancing, around staying home except with your immediate family.”
She suggested visiting moms from the opposite side of a window and video calls.
“It is so important we continue to stay the course and continue to see that decline in cases so we can slowly start to make changes that move us forward,” she said.
The city has cancelled events out to July 2, including Canada Day celebrations and fireworks.
But Richardson does see a lot of hope in Hamiltons’s numbers, particularly key markers used to determine when physical distancing can gradually start to ease.
Roughly one month ago, cases were doubling every five days. Now, Richardson says it’s up to nearly 50 days for the equation that takes into account more than just confirmed cases.
Many new cases are now related to mass testing that is going on in long-term care and other congregate living settings instead of sick people coming forward. As a result, a lot of new cases are asymptomatic.
“So that is a very good sign that we’re moving past the peak, things are levelling out and we’ve gotten really good control,” said Richardson. “That is thanks to the very good work that has been done across this community in terms of people staying home, working from home and doing things differently.”
The most telling number is Hamilton’s recovered cases, which is now increasing faster than new confirmed cases. As of
Monday, 63 per cent of Hamilton cases had resolved. It means 287 people are better, while 164 are still ill.
The picture is even better provincewide, with 70 per cent of cases now recovered — meaning 12,505 have resolved while 5,418 are still sick.
“We’re seeing those cases now resolved and we’re not replacing them,” said Richardson.
However, she’s watching to see if the numbers change as community gardens open up and the province allowed some businesses to start operating again Monday — with physicaldistancing rules in place.
“We don’t know what will happen as we start to open up further,” said Richardson. “We’ll be continuing to monitor that those numbers continue to come down, doubling time continues to lengthen and that we’re able to look after these cases in a timely manner in order for us to move forward. We don’t want to experience a second peak.”
The province is considering having COVID-free hospitals in cities with multiple facilities so that elective procedures can start up again. Hamilton Health Sciences has already announced it will treat COVID-19 at Hamilton General and McMaster Children’s hospitals, hopefully leaving Juravinski Hospital virus-free.
The big question is long-term care, where the virus is still accelerating while the curve flattens in the community.
Ontario’s deaths show the devastating impact COVID-19 has had in seniors’ homes. Provincewide, 1,300 people have died as of Monday and three-quarters of those were in long-term care.
In Hamilton, 13 of the 21 deaths have been in long-term care and retirement homes. The worst outbreak was in Cardinal Retirement Residence on Herkimer Street, where seven residents died.
In total, 47 residents and 18 staff tested positive in the outbreak that was declared over Sunday.
Richardson said it’s unlikely Cardinal will end up in outbreak again, like Heritage Green Nursing Home, because mass testing was done long ago in the retirement residence, making it unlikely new cases will be found.