Climate study finds emissions rising steadily in GTHA

Hamilton once again had the highest per-person carbon output in the region

Carbon emissions are steadily rising across the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area, an alarming trend that the climate agency tracking the data said should serve as a “code red” for the municipalities.

The Atmospheric Fund (TAF) found that emissions increased by seven per cent in Toronto and rose by 5.2 per cent in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA) in 2018.

Bryan Purcell, vice-president of policy and programs at TAF, called this year’s annual emissions report “a much-needed reality check,” saying that if emissions aren’t lowered soon they could further affect daily life.

The data in the study released on Tuesday was collected in 2018. However, the numbers show an upward trend in carbon emissions over the four years since Ontario’s coal phase-out.

In 2015, Ontario passed the Ending Coal for Cleaner Air Act, which prohibited the use of coal to generate electricity at specified generation facilities.

Eliminating coal-fired electricity is considered the single largest emissions reduction action — yet carbon levels continue to slowly rise.

The study found 44 per cent of Ontario’s total carbon emissions are from the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area. These regions produced up to 55.5 megatonnes of emissions in 2018.

TAF’s report also found the major cause of rising carbon levels stem from natural gas. A 4.8 per cent increase in electricity consumption resulted in a 57 per cent increase in electricity emissions in the GTHA.

The report says the majority of these emissions were released from natural gas, a fossil fuel used for space and water heating, in addition to electricity consumption in homes and offices.

Almost 60 per cent of Toronto’s 2018 emissions were from natural gas in buildings, including residential, commercial, industrial and institutional buildings. Buildings and transportation in Toronto and the GTA were the biggest emitters in 2018, the report says.

“It is clear we are not on track to achieve the deep carbon reduction necessary to reach the 2030 and 2050 climate targets needed to curb dangerous climate change,” TAF stated.

In 2019, Mayor John Tory declared a climate emergency in the city of Toronto along with 800 other governments around the world.

“The city is already working on environmental initiatives, including reducing greenhouse gas emissions, undertaking building retrofits and buying electric buses,” Tory said at the time.

As rising emissions continue, Purcell says local governments need to “move from making high-level commitments to implementing policies that will create actionable change.”

Purcell said governments need to take more “rigorous regulatory approaches,” such as creating performance standards to prevent buildings from using unreasonable amounts of electricity.

Purcell said rising emissions are already having an impact on the daily life of Torontonians, with extreme weather events happening in the last few years, including ice storms that have led to power outages.

The climate crisis was acknowledged by Mayor Tory following widespread flooding across the city during the summers of 2019 and 2020.

“We’re expecting to see more of this in the years ahead, with heat waves expecting to triple by 2050, which could also increase heat-related mortalities and morbidities,” Purcell said.

Mayor John Tory told the Star that reducing emissions is a battle the city can’t fight on its own.

Tory added that he’s currently working with the largest building owners across the city through the Green Will Initiative to address building emissions.

“To date, building owners responsible for more than 300 million square feet have agreed to participate in this initiative,” Tory said.

In addition, the city is developing a Net Zero Strategy coming later this year, which Tory believes will set Toronto on a path of reaching zero emissions by 2050.

“Working with the other governments, with industries and with the enthusiastic participation of the people of Toronto, we will meet our climate goals because it’s the right thing to do,” Tory said.

Currently, emissions from transportation are found to be dramatically decreasing due to less transportation during the pandemic, Purcell said.

However, Purcell predicts once people’s daily activity resumes, emission levels will continue to rise unless more action to fight climate change is put into place.

“Climate change is an existential threat to all people, the solutions we can bring forward require sacrifice on our part to help drive a better world for us and for our children and grandchildren,” Purcell said.