Worst of fourth wave yet to come, Hamilton forecasting predicts
Hospitals are bracing, more COVID-19 testing centres planned as shots remain ‘excruciatingly, painfully’ slow
Hamilton’s fourth wave is far from over, predicts modelling that shows COVID-19 cases are about to rise, sending hundreds to hospital.
Hamilton Health Sciences is bracing for surges of COVID patients after Scarsin Forecasting warned the worst of this wave is still to come over the next month — despite increasing immunization rates and vaccine passports set to come into force Wednesday.
Forecasting shows the next three months will hit the young hardest as the aggressive Delta variant spreads primarily among the unvaccinated.
Hamilton has among the worst vaccine coverage in the province and isn’t expected to have 80 per cent of residents fully vaccinated with two doses until mid-October — more than 40 per cent of Ontario’s public health units are already at or above this mark, including neighbouring Halton.
The city is planning to open more COVID testing centres — including potential pop-up clinics with paramedics — after residents complained about access and long lines.
Increased cases are projected to continue even after the peak of the fourth wave, right
through to the end of the year.
Hamilton’s medical officer of health expressed worry about how much longer health-care workers can continue to withstand the pandemic workload, saying some are doing stretches as long as 30 days straight.
“Staff are exhausted,” Dr. Elizabeth Richardson said at the board of health meeting Monday. “The capacity isn’t as big as it was ... not because of a funding issue ... but again the exhaustion, the length of time this response has been going on and the ability to keep performing over and above.”
The forecast
Scarsin predicts the fourth wave will peak in mid-October in Hamilton with the most likely scenario topping out at 120 cases a day, which is slightly below the height of the second wave, which saw 137 cases a day.
However, there is a wide divide between the best- and worst-case scenarios as a number of opposing factors make this wave difficult to forecast.
The lowest projection sees its height hit 100 cases a day, while the highest soars to 200, overtaking the third wave’s 180. The top of the third wave was accurately predicted by Scarsin.
The modelling projects 300 COVID hospital admissions between now and the end of December — this number only includes Hamiltonians and not patients from other cities.
Half of the hospitalizations are predicted to be among those age 20 to 59 with a further one-quarter aged 60 to 70.
“The fight isn’t over,” Hamilton Health Sciences CEO Rob MacIsaac tweeted Sep. 15. “We’re planning for surges in ICU capacity needs and we’ve reopened the COVID assessment centre. Get your vaccine
— it’s our best defence.”
Scarsin projects the young will be hit hard over the next three months, with one-third of new cases among those age 19 or younger. Over half of the cases are predicted to be among those age 20 to 59 between now and the end of December.
The effectiveness of vaccines can be seen in the forecasting as deaths are predicted to be much lower than the third wave.
The fourth wave so far
Hamilton COVID numbers are dropping from what was described at board of health as a “steep case peak” in August.
However, the city continues to have the fourth highest rate next to Chatham-Kent, Windsor-Essex and Brant. Although the rate has decreased 18 per cent in the last seven days, shows analysis done by epidemiologist Ahmed Al-Jaishi.
Other key metrics have also fallen, with average daily new cases at 38 on Sept.18 compared to 80 on Aug. 31. At the same time, the weekly rate per 100,000 population went down to 44 from 94.
So far, the fourth wave hasn’t been uniform in Ontario.
“Each of these health units have been experiencing very unique case trajectories,” said epidemiologist Ruth Sanderson. “Hamilton has had a steep increase in August but ... has most recently decreased as other areas such as Niagara … and Brant … have increased.”
Lagging vaccination
Hamilton had the secondworst vaccination rate in the province Monday with 75 per cent of eligible residents having two shots — tied with Lambton, Porcupine, and Renfrew County and District.
Chatham-Kent was the lowest with 74 per cent, while the highest was Leeds, Grenville and Lanark District at 89 per cent. The province was at 79 per cent.
“Surely there can’t be 25 per cent anti-vaxxers in our community — it’s got to be a much smaller number,” said Coun. Tom Jackson. “It just seems like we are inching ever so excruciatingly, painfully up the ladder.”
Hamilton closed its last massvaccination clinic Sep. 3. Nearly half of shots are now given at pharmacies, roughly one-quarter at primary-care clinics and another roughly one-quarter are mobile COVID shots.
“It takes time and commitment to get vaccination rates up,” said Richardson. “Hamilton isn’t different from the rest of the province in terms of this slow and steady progress that’s being made.”
Richardson rejected having a vaccine blitz similar to Toronto over the weekend.
Hamilton has seen shots drop off on weekends with only 729 doses given out Sunday compared to 1,754 on Friday.