Tanks signal a new and bloody phase in Ukraine

Germany, a voice of caution in western Europe, was shamed into sending its Leopards

With its decision to focus on tank warfare, NATO’s campaign against Russia has entered a new phase.

Until now, NATO has tended to stay away from tanks. A tank battalion can be very effective militarily. But by making it easier to expand a conflict, it can also create real political risks.

Germany’s decision to allow its Leopard tanks to be used by the government in Kyiv has done just that. Germany will send 14 of its own Leopards to Ukraine. More important, it will allow other nations, including Canada to supply their Leopards to Kyiv.

Canada has agreed to give Ukraine at least four of its tanks. Germany is already a major military backer of Ukraine, outdone only by Britain and the U.S. But Germany has also been voice of caution in the alliance, reminding Eastern European hawks of the danger an all-out war with Russia could create.

The hawks could never abide this side of German foreign policy. Which is why they focused on Berlin’s approach to tanks, calling it irrational and pro-Russian. In the end, the hawks eventually won this battle. They effectively shamed Germany into expanding its tank warfare capacity.

In an effort to make the tank decision more palatable to Berlin, the U.S. agreed to send 31 of its best tanks, the M1 Abrams, to Ukraine for use against the Russians.

In the end, the hawks cleaned up. Dozens of German Leopards have been committed to the war against Russia. And the U.S. has found itself agreeing to something it had until now avoided — sending its most powerful tanks into a war that has no end. Overall, the scene is being set for a new and bloody chapter in the war.

What will the Russians do? Moscow already views the Ukraine war as a proxy battle between NATO and Russia. It’s a self-serving description (it conveniently ignores Russia’s invasion of Ukraine), but it is not entirely wrong.

What will Russia do if faced with an American tank based in Ukraine? What will Russia do if faced with a Canadian tank manufactured in Germany and based in Ukraine? What will Ottawa do if Russia fires on that Canadian tank manufactured in Germany and based in Ukraine?

I’m not sure anyone has given adequate thought to these questions. When asked about the Russian reaction to the tank decision, Defence Minister Anita Anand said Thursday that things have changed since the war began and that winning is paramount.

Chief of defence staff Wayne Eyre said if Russia wanted a different outcome, it could pull its troops from Ukraine.

Meanwhile, an unwelcome aside: Ukraine’s corruption problem continues.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has fired several senior officials for alleged corruption. An official appointed by the president to clean up corruption, along with several members of his staff, died recently in a helicopter crash.

By some reckoning, Russia and Ukraine are two of the most corrupt states in Europe. In 2021, Transparency International ranked Ukraine as 122nd of the 180th most corrupt countries in the world.