Erdogan Confronts Quakes, and Vote
As Turkish authorities grapple with the agony of a mounting death toll from the country’s deadliest earthquake in a century and aftershocks, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is confronting a parallel crisis: the disaster’s blow to an economy that was in urgent need of repair.
This month’s quakes have killed over 40,000 people in Turkey, and thousands more in Syria. They will saddle Ankara with a staggering reconstruction bill and a weakened economy, posing a fresh challenge to Mr. Erdogan’s grip on his political fortunes as he seeks a third four-year term in a crucial presidential election in May.
Before the devastation, which also left millions homeless, Turkey was reeling from a collapsing currency and runaway inflation that had reached an annual rate of 85 percent in October. Those vulnerabilities have tipped Turkish families and businesses into a cost-ofliving crisis.
Aggravating the problems are financial policies pursued by Mr. Erdogan, a st rong ma n leader who has tightened his control over the economy and strengthened ties with Russia and the Gulf States to help bolster Turkey’s finances.
Reconstruction is expected to cost $10 billion to $50 billion, although the Turkish Enterprise
and Business Confederation has put the total closer to $85 billion. Over 8,000 buildings were flattened and major infrastructure was damaged when the quake rocked southern Turkey. The area, a manufacturing and maritime hub that was also home to thousands of Syrian war refugees, accounts for 9 percent of Turkey’s economic activity.
Analysts say Mr. Erdogan, who has been criticized for his handling of relief efforts, is stressing an autocratic playbook for managing the economic and political fallout.
“His main focus is on the elections,” said Soner Cagaptay, director of the Turkish Research Program at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. “Erdogan has never won without delivering growth, and he will be seeking a rebalancing effect once reconstruction starts.”
Mr. Erdogan announced a fast-track program to start replacing thousands of destroyed homes within a year.
Turkey’s current state is in sharp contrast to the economy he revived after becoming prime minister in 2003. He pursued liberal economic policies and a debt-fueled construction spree. The middle class expanded and Turkey overcame its status as an emerging market laggard.
But the gains unraveled as he tightened his grip on the country as president.
More recently, Mr. Erdogan has played both sides of Russia’s war against Ukraine for economic advantage, said Marc Pierini, a Carnegie Europe fellow and former European Union ambassador to Turkey. As bad as the economy is, it would be worse without energy trade with Russia.
Headed into the elections, Mr. Pierini said, “Erdogan will use all imaginable means to stay in power.”